Ukraine war complicating NATO relationships
Can Europe and America stay united in their battle against Russia?
As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, this is the key question.
The answer is not obvious. Different European countries have developed different ways of dealing with Moscow. Although the NATO side talks up unity, the reality is anything but.
Some countries, including Ukraine itself, want to take the war directly to Russia.
Others, like Germany, are more reluctant. They have to deal with populations at home that are more sympathetic to Moscow.
The controversy over the September bombing of an undersea Russian gas pipeline points to the problem.
As the New York Times has reported, American intelligence analysts believe the bombing was carried out by pro-Ukraine forces with access to sophisticated weaponry.
But Ukraine denies it had anything to do with the explosion, which ruptured Russian gas lines running beneath the Baltic Sea.
But if Ukraine didn’t do it, who did? Russia itself might have been responsible, but that possibility is most unlikely.
More likely is that this was an attack carried out by one or more of the forces facing off against Russia.
If so, this would point to a dangerous escalation of a war that up to now has been successfully contained.
The U.S. in particular has managed to keep its hawkish eastern European allies from sparking all-out war against Russia. Similarly, Germany has managed to act in a way that keeps the pressure on Russia without risking nuclear war.
This can last only so long, however, before the pressure from eastern European hawks for widening the war becomes intolerable.
Meanwhile, there is the U.S. itself. Up to now, there has been broad-based bipartisan support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. But support among Republicans is eroding. In particular, former (and possibly future) president Donald Trump has spoken out against American involvement in the Ukraine war.
This comes at a time when the European Union and the U.S. are already at loggerheads over Washington’s “Buy American” policy for electric vehicles. The Ukraine war simply makes everything else, including trade, more complicated.
In short, there is less to the West’s united front than meets the eye. On the military side, America and Germany have their hands full as they work to keep the shooting war under control.
On the economic side, Europe and the U.S. are increasingly singing from different song sheets. It’s not easy to isolate a big power like Russia.
For Ukraine, none of this bodes well. It can’t afford to be formally linked to actions like the pipeline bombing. Yet it can’t afford politically to distance itself from military actions — even the most dubious ones — aimed at Russia.
All the while, we are told that NATO and the world are united against Russia.
That’s sort of true. But it is also sort of not true.
There is much that unites the forces arrayed against Russia. There is even more that still divides us.