June byelections will be Poilievre’s biggest test

Pierre Poilievre is about to face his greatest test. How he performs could determine not just his future but, just possibly, the country’s.

His first time up at the plate — in a Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection late last year — many concluded Poilievre struck out. That’s one way to see it. But I look at it differently: Poilievre refused to swing the bat — fully aware his efforts would be futile in a Liberal stronghold.

But for the upcoming byelections in June, that approach just won’t cut it. Indeed, to show he’s not just a capable rhetorician, but an electoral strategist who can succeed where federal Conservatives have recently fallen short, Poilievre must swing for the fences.

Question is: is the count in his favour?

Four byelections, two in Manitoba, one in Ontario, and one in Quebec, all represent unique challenges. And just to set expectations straight, he doesn’t need to win them all just as he is unlikely to.

Rather, Poilievre has a critical opportunity to show he can channel the groundswell of support he achieved in his leadership campaign into a larger movement. To show he stands for his own distinct vision of Canada, not just opposition to Trudeau and the Liberals.

Some say he needs to bring forward his industrial policy. Others his stand on climate. And, of course, still others want to hear how he plans to address the perennial problems in our health care system.

He has answers to all of these policy matters — and others. But here is where it gets tricky, very tricky, because this is where the communication priorities become difficult for him.

It is clear that Poilievre has found a way to connect with hundreds of thousands, likely now millions, of Canadians on the very issues that matter most to them — food inflation, gas prices, and the staggering cost of everyday life.

But he needs these byelections because he needs to show he can win across the country.

In Ontario, he confronts unexpected defiance. Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who is stepping down, publicly endorsed a candidate for the Liberal nomination.

In Quebec, pollsters give the Conservatives a shot at only a few seats. The outgoing Marc Garneau’s riding is not one of them. Although likely unattainable, it’s the effort, the approach, that matters.

Manitoba bears its own peculiar challenges. Here, Poilievre faces a more extreme faction of firebrand politics with Maxime Bernier running for the PPC. Mercifully, without vaccine mandates to rally around, Bernier’s brand is inching closer to extinction.

Poilievre should be able to face Bernier down with relative ease. His challenge will be balancing his hardline support in Winnipeg South Centre with the more moderate stance that riding expects.

All things considered, so far Poilievre’s 2023 has been a good one.

A lead in the national polls? Check. Even better, in many, he’s opened up more than a five-point lead.

A healthy and growing war chest?

You bet.

This year, his Conservatives have raised $8.3 million.

But tangible electoral results? That’s … pending.

So while favourable predictions are nice, and money’s even better, in politics, performance on election day is all that matters.

If these byelections actually are a precursor to the real showdown, Poilievre simply cannot afford to take this tuneup lightly.