Time running out to hand over reins

Even as the federal Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to plunge in the polls, Trudeau insists that he will not step down.

He intends to lead his party into the next election (which must be held no later than October 2025.) If he is true to his word then he may preside over an electoral disaster that would rival the 2011 election in magnitude. (In that election Michael Ignatieff led the Liberals to a third-place finish, losing 43 seats in the process. It was their worst electoral result in history.)

If Trudeau stepped down and another leader took over, it isn’t certain that the new leader would be able to fix the mess they are in. But the odds are they would do things differently and possibly more successfully. But if Trudeau is to step down, he must do it quickly. He needs to give the new leader an opportunity to rebuild. If he waits to resign, history says the Liberals will face an even bigger disaster.

The first such historical example proving this point is with Justin Trudeau’s father. Pierre Trudeau was prime minister from April 1968 to June 1979 and again from March 1980 to June 1984. In his last tenure in office he repatriated the Constitution, the national debt soared, he presided over a terrible recession, he alienated Western Canada with his National Energy Program and upset our closest NATO allies with a somewhat ill-defined and “pie in the sky” peace initiative.

Through all that, even as he sank lower and lower in the polls, he refused to step down. (Sound familiar?) The last time the Liberals had been ahead in the polls while he was in office was August 1981.

A federal election had to be called by February 1985. On Feb. 29, 1984, Pierre Trudeau took a famous walk in the snow and decided to resign as Liberal leader, calling for a party leadership convention in June 1984. He was replaced by John Turner, who called an election for September 1984. Turner had seen a bump in the polls when he replaced Trudeau, and gambled on a quick election. His gamble failed as the Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Mulroney won a massive majority with 211 seats while the Liberals lost 95 seats.

Is it possible that the outcome may have been different if Trudeau had resigned earlier and given Turner more time to settle in and differentiate himself and his government from that of Pierre Trudeau? It is certainly very possible. But by waiting so long to resign, Pierre Trudeau doomed his party in the 1984 election.

We saw a similar occurrence in 1993. In February 1993 Mulroney, whose approval ratings hovered around 10 per cent, announced he was stepping down. He was replaced by Kim Campbell that June. Campbell had to call an election by November of that year. As such she had no chance to try and create her own image as prime minister. In the October 1993 election the Conservatives were wiped out, dropping to only two seats. Campbell lost her own seat.

Justin Trudeau should look at these two elections very carefully. If he cares about the chances of his party in the next federal election he needs to announce he is retiring within the next two months. It will take the Liberals probably four to five months at minimum to plan and stage a leadership convention. And then, providing their supply and confidence agreement with the New Democratic holds, that new leader will have roughly a year to “make their own mark” as prime minister and give them a fighting chance in the 2025 election.

Every political leader has an ego, and Justin Trudeau is no exception. It is also no secret he doesn’t like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. But he needs to put the good of his party over his own ego and resign.