Drought, heat raise the risk of ‘more explosive’ wildfire season
Persistent drought and months of above-average temperatures have escalated the risk of another record-breaking wildfire season, federal ministers said Wednesday as they warned about the urgent need to address climate change.
“We can expect that the wildfire season will start sooner, end later and potentially be more explosive,” Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan told a news conference Wednesday.
The 2023 fire season was Canada’s worst on record, with more than 6,600 fires burning more than 15 million hectares, an area almost twice the size of Lake Superior. It forced more than 230,000 people from their homes — including the entire city of Yellowknife — and created unprecedented smoke conditions across much of the country and into the United States.
Eight firefighters died battling the blazes and Canada expects to spend more than $750 million in disaster assistance alone. That does not include the billions of dollars spent fighting the fires in the first place.
A briefing document forecasting the fire risk for this spring shows conditions are already ripe for an early and above-normal fire risk from Quebec all the way to British Columbia in both April and May.
The forecast is based on having had a warmer-than-normal winter with minimal snow and widespread drought, particularly in the Prairies. There is also a high probability for above-normal temperatures in April, May and June. Western Canada, eastern Ontario and western Quebec are currently facing the highest risk.
The briefing includes a caveat that forecasting precipitation levels is not very reliable so the warnings are based on current conditions, and could change if more rain falls this spring than is currently expected.
The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre lists 65 fires already burning, mainly in B.C., Alberta and the Northwest Territories. More than half are fires that started in 2023, smouldered underground throughout the winter and have since re-emerged. Most of the fires currently burning are under control.
Human activity is typically the main fire risk factor in the spring, said Michael Norton, the director general of the Northern Forestry Centre at Natural Resources Canada.
Preventing fires from starting in the first place is critical, and in the spring most fires are humancaused, including through careless burning, campfires, fireworks, and the heat from off-road vehicles igniting grass or other debris on the ground.
Lightning becomes a primary source of wildfires during the summer.
About 70 per cent of the fires between January and May 2023 were started by humans, compared with fewer than 20 per cent of the fires that started in June, July and August.
The low level of snow in most of Canada is among the key reasons for the higher risks this spring.