Imagining the Economic Future of Gaza
On a December morning in London, more than two dozen people from influential institutions across the Middle East, Europe and the United States gathered to plan for a goal that, at that moment, verged on preposterous: the reconstruction and long-term economic development of Gaza.
Gaza was under relentless bombardment by Israeli military forces in response to terrorist attacks by Hamas in October. Gazan communities were being reduced to rubble, and tens of thousands of people had been killed. Families were facing hunger, fear and grief.
Yet in London, members of the international establishment discussed how to eventually transform Gaza from a place defined by isolation and poverty into a Mediterranean commercial hub centered on trade, tourism and innovation, yielding a middle class.
The group included senior officials from U.S. and European economic development agencies, executives from Middle Eastern finance and construction companies, and two partners from the international consulting firm McKinsey & Company. Officially, they attended as individuals, not as representatives of their institutions.
The plan they produced is far removed from the dire reality confronting Gaza today. Turning it into reality would require the end of a war that has devastated the territory, as well as tens of billions of dollars in investment. It would also demand resolution to the monumental and uncertain political question of who eventually controls Gaza, and then the cooperation of that authority.
Yet the participants maintain that mapping out a more prosperous future has value because it can prepare the way for projects once conditions are suitable.
“We are proposing to connect Gaza to the world over the long term,” said Chris Choa, founder and director of Outcomist, a London firm that designs large-scale urban development projects, and one of the initial conveners of the group, known as Palestine Emerging.
The initiative, one of several under discussion, has gained the interest and advice of major international funding organizations including the World Bank, said a senior agency official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The bank views the plan as contributing toward a strategy that could generate jobs in Gaza by integrating the territory into the global economy.
The plan centers on a series of major projects, including a deepwater port, a desalination plant to provide drinking water, an online health care service and a transportation corridor connecting Gaza with the West Bank. A fund for reconstruction and development would oversee future undertakings.
The most forward-looking components, such as reducing customs barriers to trade and introducing a new currency in place of the Israeli shekel, assume the eventual establishment of Palestinian autonomy, a step that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has vowed to resist. He has also brushed aside the prospect that the future governance of Gaza could include the Palestinian Authority, the most obvious potential partner for the reconstruction initiative.
The enormous price tag is another impediment. The toll of the damage to Gaza’s crucial infrastructure has reached $18.5 billion, according to the World Bank and the United Nations. More than a million people lack homes.
Who might deliver such funding is among the largest variables. A previous development plan for the Palestinian territories advanced by the Trump administration in 2019 envisioned substantial investment from Persian Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The new initiative has yet to engage with the gulf countries, Mr. Choa said.
The group has briefed the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, said Baron Frankal, chief executive of the Portland Trust, a London-based organization that pursues economic opportunities for Palestinians. The group has not engaged Hamas, which had overseen Gaza since 2007 and is widely condemned as a terrorist organization.
“If Hamas are still players, people are not going to invest tens of billions of dollars,” said Stephen Byers, a former British cabinet secretary in the Tony Blair government, who attended the London meeting.
While the largest projects require clarity over the future political administration of Gaza, other initiatives could begin as soon as military activities cease.
“I want to focus on how we open the bread store, how we get factories up and running,” said Jim Pickup, chief executive of the Middle East Investment Initiative, a nonprofit that finances development projects.