Let it go.

Let it go

I guess the only thing worse than being written about is not being written about. From a news pundit’s point of view new U.S. President Donald Trump is a source of copy pretty much every day. In my opinion the U.S. travel ban has been a debacle for Trump and his administration and it’s not getting any better.

U.S. administrations have imposed travel bans before. What is different about the current one, or not according to the law courts, is that it seemed to me to be rolled out without much or indeed any thought as to the consequences. People were caught in the air with legitimate documentation to travel only to find they were refused at the place of entry to the U.S. Agencies seemed to be caught off guard.

I’ve read that since the Executive Order on travel that business travel to the U.S. alone has declined US$185 million in bookings I have no idea what this order and the furore around it will do to the U.S. tourist industry.

The order has been successfully challenged at two levels in the U.S. court system and now, according to tweets from Trump, looks set to go all the way to the Supreme Court challenging the U.S. constitution in a worrying way. If it was me, not that I would have issued the order in the first place, I would let it go. Put it down to experience, or lack of it, apologise and move on. There are other more effective ways to screen the supposedly hordes of bad people that are trying to enter the U.S. One can’t help but wonder how many bad people from all religions, colours and creeds are already in the U.S.

Trump and Russia don’t seem to be bumping heads much. There may be very good reasons for this that we will not know about for many years. I still follow the Trump dossier story when I can. I read in the UK Daily Telegraph recently that the dossier’s author, Christopher Steele is still in hiding in fear of his life, and that former KGB and FSB General Oleg Erovinkin was found dead in the back of his car on Boxing Day in reportedly mysterious circumstances thought to be a heart attack. Erovinkin was an aide to Russian former Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who is apparently named in the dossier. Other news reports I have read, say that Erovinkin was found in the trunk of his car, which seems more than a little odd if it’s true. I expect this story to keep bubbling in the background.

Trump has had a go at the media, the judiciary and looks to be pointing a finger as to the nation’s woes at a certain sector of society. I leave you to draw similarities to other world leaders and times. I still hope that the new administration will learn, adapt and adopt and get better. There is still time for some kindness and humility to set in. Prime Minister Trudeau will have to be at his diplomatic best when he meets Trump.

And now back to Brexit. The much talked about Article 50, will I believe, be triggered in March and I reckon earlier rather than later. A bill just has to go through the House of Lords and back to the Commons and it’s a done deal. A lot of uncertainty is over if there will be a negotiated deal for the good of all or a STICK IT no deal and a break. I suspect the former. It makes no sense for either side to fall out with neighbours.

There are more bailout worries over Greece, which doesn’t in my opinion look to be ever likely to be able to pay off it’s debt. What does one do? Throw more good money after bad or let the nation fall with all the consequences it would have for the Eurozone and EU?

The next election that could go so-called populist is The Netherlands, pundits find it hard to see how Geert Wilders will be able to form a government. France, the fifth/ sixth largest economy in the world depending on who you read, is another matter entirely. The election is in May, one of the favorite candidates, François Fillon is struggling with a jobs for his family scandal and so-called populist leader Marine Le Pen looks odds on to at least reach the crucial second round of voting even though pollsters don’t see the lady winning. Where have we heard that before? Le Pen wants to take France out of the Euro, which according to European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi can’t be done. Furthermore, Le Pen has pledged to hold a referendum on France’s membership on the EU. I expect there will much market attention zeroed in on uncertainty in France and the EU now with the prospect of a Frexit vote.