after Erdogan’s win, what’s next for Turkey’s foreign policy?

Turkey’s relations with the West have never been as tense and turbulent as under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In addition, few governments in the Middle East appear to be enamored with Ankara’s interference in the region’s affairs. Following Erdogan’s recent electoral victory, however, it is ties with the West that will determine much, especially now that Erdogan is effectively Turkey’s sole ruler following implementation of constitutional amendments adopted in 2017. Erdogan’s election victory also shows that his abrasive and offensive tone in conducting relations with the West has the support of a significant number of Turks in Turkey and abroad. This has led many to assume that Ankara’s foreign policy orientation under Erdogan’s executive presidency will amount to more of the same. That might be the case, but the underlying philosophy will, however, be different. Turkey’s policy had previously been based on the idealistic notion of “zero problems with neighbors,” formulated by Ahmet Davutoglu, the now discredited former prime minister. After replacing Davutoglu in July 2016, Binali Yildirim rehashed this approach, asserting that he would work to “increase the number of Turkey’s friends and reduce the number of its enemies.” Both Davutoglu and Yildirim’s formulations were not original, of course, being no more than derivatives of the “peace at home, peace abroad” dictum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic. Their formulations failed to produce the desired effects, as Turkey’s problems with its neighbors increased and the number of its friends fell sharply, due mainly to Erdogan’s singular and harsh approach to international relations. Erdogan’s electoral manifesto, presented in May, made it clear that he would abandon the idealistic notions expounded by Davutoglu and Yildirim if elected Turkey’s first executive president. His foreign policy, Erdogan indicated, would be based on realism driven by his understanding of the global situation and built essentially on the understanding that “the world is no longer the unipolar world of the 1990s.” Also grounding this approach is the understanding that Turkey’s vital national security concerns trump all other considerations because of the “reactionary and exclusionary actions of states.” In short, Erdogan’s foreign policy vision is based on the idea of building a militarily strong Turkey that can stand up to its enemies and protect itself against all external threats while also becoming the key power in its region. In this regard, Erdogan points to Operation