Election Pakistan July 25, 2018

Two possibilities as this stage:

PTI led coalition government ( AML, BAP, PML-Q, GDA, PSP to be coalition partners, Independents to join PTI) PML-N and PPP coalition government (MMA, ANP, MQM-P to be coalition partners, Independents to join PML-N or PPP) (Seat projection: PTI - 104; PML(N) - 78; PPP - 28; MQM(P) -13; PSP - 1; MMA - 8; BAP - 4; GDA - 10; PML(Q) - 6; AML - 1; ANP - 2; BNP - 3; NP - 1; PKMAP - 2; IND - 11)

Reasons

PPP’s support base is relatively unhinged, but some of their electable candidates have joined PTI, and the formation of the GDA in Sindh means that they are bound to lose some seats in interior Sindh, though they may make some gains in Karachi due to the MQM breaking up. PML(N) have suffered massive losses largely due to the huge amounts of corruption scandals opening up. Their former leader, Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from PM’ship, and has now been disqualified from office for life due to corruption. Multiple high ranking ministers, such as Khawaja Asif have been disqualified, while other ministers are still being investigated. PML(N) are also losing a huge amount of electable candidates to PTI. Demands for a new province in South Punjab have led to a large amount of sitting PML(N) MNAs to leave the party. There is a bad feeling towards PML(N) in South Punjab. At the same time, PTI have expressed that they will create a new province in South Punjab on an administrative basis, if elected. This means that the PML(N) defects are likely to join PTI, or at least form an electoral alliance with them. The FATA merger has become a major issue of late. The people of FATA mostly want to be merged with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but PML(N) and it’s allies, MMA and PKMAP, are blocking the merger. The Khatam-e-Nubuwwat issue caused widespread protests by the Barelvi religious group, and has created a bad feeling towards PML(N) from the religious part of Pakistan. These voters may look towards PTI rather than PPP, because PTI aim to build a country based on the “principles of Islam” while PPP are a secular party. In Pakistan, people vote for electables, and all the PPP and PML(N) electable are defecting to PTI. PTI’s strong performance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has ensured that they will be the first party to win the province two times in a row. PTI have turned Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into model province for the country, and have done a lot of work there including: Depoliticising the police. Establishing law and order. Improved health and education. [4][5] Reforming and modernisation of madrasahs. Rs 5 lakh health insurance to 70 of the population. Improving the environment by undetaking the “billion tree tsunami project”. Taking genuine and effective measures to fight corruption. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was the most corrupt province of Pakistan before 2013. After 2013, when PTI came into power, it has become the least corrupt province.PTI also fought hard against PML(N) in the Panama papers corruption scandal. Development work [13]such as Peshawar [Local government system MQM crumbling into factions in Karachi leaves a void in Karachi. This void is being hotly contested by PTI and PSP. While MQM factions won’t lose all their seats in Karachi and urban Sindh, they are likely to lose a significant amount of them, mostly to PTI, but a few to PPP too. PML(N) failure in Baluchistan has lead to the formation of the BAP by PML(N) and PML(Q) defects. This new party is filled with electables, and seem likely to form Baluchistan government and win a good share of seats. This new party seems to have an inclination towards PTI, especially since the senate elections, and are looking like a viable ally for PTI. Ultimately it will come down to which party can get the most people to vote on election day, at this stage I would put my money on a PTI led government.

Elections 2018 By: M. Abdus Samad

AN ELECTION has an important role in building the nation. If candidates are loyal and honest and the election is free and fair, its fruits are second to none. Unfortunately, all the elections that have been held in Pakistan since 1970 to 2013 could not change the fate of the people while every elected government contributed to an increase in domestic and international debts, besides corruption. The upcoming elections 2018 can be a turning-point for Pakistan and its people if following measures are taken seriously: Articles 62 and 63 must be implemented so that only loyal and honest candidates participate in the elections. The voters must vote only those candidates who fulfill the requirements of Articles 62 and 63. Those who are against these articles or want to remove or amend them cannot be loyal to their country. The electronic voting system should be intro- duced so that once a person casts his vote, his identity card number is entered in the data and that person cannot cast his vote again. This will help eliminate multiple voting. Expenses on the election campaign must be minimal. The more a candidate spends on his election campaign, the more the chances that he is corrupt. Display and use of any weapon (legal or illegal) must be prohibited before, during and after the elections. As candidates win because of the voters, the voters must be respected in every way. Similarly, the polling staff, especially women, must be given respect. A handout describing the step-by-step procedure for casting a vote should be distributed by each party in its constituency so that every voter should have proper knowledge about how to vote correctly. Voting age be further reduced from 18 years to 16 years (age of a matriculate person), so that more people can vote and make the winning party stronger. Pakistan elections 2018: What do the opinion polls predict Updated Jul 16, 2018 What do the opinion polls have to say about the three major parties -- Pakistan Muslim LeagueNawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) -- in the run-up to the Pakistan elections 2018 Islamabad: As Pakistan heads for general elections on July 25, two dramatic events that occurred on Friday the 13th one horrifying and the other loaded with political drama bring into focus what’s at stake in these elections. The first was the deadly suicide attack at Mastung in Balochistan province that killed more than 130 people in an election rally. On the same evening of July 13 ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz returned to Pakistan and were promptly arrested. How will these two events change the electoral outcome in Pakistan Will people choose a party seen as taking a tougher line against the militancy and sectarian violence that has been plaguing the country for years Will a sympathy wave help the jailed Nawaz Sharif Or will the broad trends shown by the opinion polls and surveys hold true Let’s take a closer look at what the opinion polls have to say about the three major players -- Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Tehreeke-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Punjab: Sharif is still king but PTI is gaining ground Three key polls -- Pulse Consultant, Gallup Pakistan and IPOR -- show that Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N continues to be the party of choice for voters in Punjab, the country’s largest and most dominant province. But significantly, former cricketer Imran Khan’s PTI has narrowed the gap in Punjab. For instance, the IPOR poll shows that the PML-N vote has barely increased by 2 per cent to hover at just around 50 per cent, but the PTI has made an impressive gain from 19 per cent in 2013 to 30 per cent in 2018. Sindh: It continues to be PPP territory According to the Gallup poll, voter preference for PPP remained unchanged from last year at 44 per cent. PTI and PML-N have voter preferences of under 10 per cent in the province. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Firmly behind Imran Khan A PTI stronghold, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is firmly behind Imran Khan. In the Gallup poll, 57 per cent respondents said they would vote for PTI, an increase of 10 per cent from last year. Only 9 per cent of respondents said they would vote for PML-N, down from 2017’s 10 per cent. The Pulse poll showed similar trends, also indicating that voter preference for PPP in 2018 was up slightly to 9 per cent. But Imran Khan is clearly miles ahead in this part of Pakistan. Balochistan: A mixed bag but PPP may have the edge In Balochistan, the PML-N’s popularity has declined, in both the Pulse and Gallup surveys. Pulse showed PPP as being preferred by 36 per cent of voters in Balochistan; and PTI by 12 per cent voters, a figure which was 21 per cent in 2017. The PML-N is not in the top three parties in voter preference. Overall mood of the voter: PML-N, PTI are neck and neck Overall, the PTI has gained ground according to both the Gallup and Pulse surveys. Gallup still puts the PML-N ahead in terms of voter preference, a drop of 8 per cent from 2017. While 26 per cent respondents said they would vote for Sharif’s party, PTI was close behind at 25 per cent. PPP is a distant third at 16 per cent. In the Pulse survey, PTI has actually moved ahead of PML-N, with their voter preferences at 30 and 27 per cent respectively. www.timesnownews.com