Trump sunk Re­pub­li­cans in the House.

The Miracle - - Front Page -

The re­sult of the 2018 midterms will be ar­gued over for weeks to come. Democrats can right­fully claim that a blue wave pro­pelled them to a House ma­jor­ity. Re­pub­li­cans, on the other hand, can say that said blue wave hit a red wall in the Se­nate, where the GOP gained seats. What the two sides prob­a­bly can agree on is this: The re­sults were all about Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump. In­deed, this midterm was more about feel­ings to­ward a pres­i­dent than any other in re­cent his­tory. Trump scored a rather low 45% ap­proval rat­ing in the exit polls, com­pared with a 54% dis­ap­proval rat­ing. That 9-point split was re­flected in what looks to ul­ti­mately be a 7- to 8-point Demo­cratic ad­van­tage in the na­tional pop­u­lar House vote. A deep dive into the exit polls makes the same gen­eral find­ing: Those who ap­prove of Trump voted Re­pub­li­can, while those who dis­ap­proved of him voted Demo­cratic. Ap­provers went for Re­pub­li­can House can­di­dates by 88% to 11%. A look back at exit polls since 1982 (when pres­i­den­tial ap­proval was first asked on an exit poll dur­ing a midterm) re­veals that this 77-point mar­gin was the largest ever for the pres­i­dent’s party among those who ap­proved of the job the pres­i­dent was do­ing. Dis­ap­provers went in the com­plete op­po­site di­rec­tion. They voted for Demo­cratic House can­di­dates 90% to 8%. That 82-point mar­gin among dis­ap­provers was the largest for the op­po­si­tion party in midterms since 1982 as well. In the House, this proved to be a dis­as­ter for Re­pub­li­cans. The Pres­i­dent was, to para­phrase him, on the bal­lot in ev­ery con­gres­sional race in the na­tion. Given that all vot­ers were able to ren­der a de­ci­sion in the House, this meant an un­pop­u­lar pres­i­dent re­sulted in a Demo­cratic-con­trolled House. The Pres­i­dent per­haps re­al­ized this when he chose his fi­nal cam­paign stops. He mostly ig­nored House races and fo­cused on key Se­nate matchups through­out the coun­try. Con­sis­tently the Pres­i­dent vis­ited states that he won in 2016. This strat­egy, com­bined with his po­lar­iz­ing rhetoric over is­sues like Jus­tice Brett Ka­vanaugh’s con­fir­ma­tion bat­tle and the mi­grant car­a­van, proved to be smart in Trump’s ef­forts to re­tain the Se­nate. It prob­a­bly con­trib­uted to Re­pub­li­can vot­ers com­ing home and vot­ing for Re­pub­li­can can­di­dates. Con­sider the key Se­nate races of Ari­zona, Florida, In­di­ana, Mis­souri, Mon­tana, North Dakota, Ten­nessee and West Vir­ginia. His ap­proval rat­ing was at or above his dis­ap­proval rat­ing in all these states. With the ex­cep­tion of West Vir­ginia, the Re­pub­li­can Se­nate can­di­dates won Trump ap­provers by at least a 76-point mar­gin in all these races.

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