November inflation hits 11.5pc, highest in 20 months
ISLAMABAD: An upward swing in consumer prices continued in November as inflation edged up to 11.5 per cent from 9.2pc, the highest increase noted in the past 20 months influenced by a record hike in fuel prices last month, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed on Tuesday. The massive rupee depreciation fuelled import-led inflation. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to its highest level in 20 months — the period when global oil prices kept rising steadily undermining earlier gains.
At the same time, prices of fresh vegetables, fruits and meat have also posted a persistent increase in major urban and rural centres.
The average inflation during the July-November period rose to 9.32pc on a yearly basis. Inflation had started declining after surging to 12.4pc in February 2020, mainly driven by a drop in prices of agricultural products. The trend is reversing now on the back of a rise in prices of petroleum products.
In 2020-21, annual CPI inflation was recorded at 8.90pc against 10.74pc the preceding year. The monthly outlook report of finance ministry shows Pakistan’s inflation rate is driven by demand factors, international commodity prices, exchange rate, seasonal factors and economic agents’ expectations concerning the future developments of these indicators. Year-on-year (YoY) inflation is marginally increased in the last two months. Going forward, this increase in inflation may be tempered by the seasonal profile whose contribution was positive in October but is usually about neutral in November. Besides government policy, administrative and relief measures may support to ease out the inflationary pressures. However, the prices of crude oil along with all other energy inputs are on the rise due to increasing global demand in post-Covid scenarios. Also, a rise in freight charges have made interna
tional trade costlier and caused a hike in global inflation. The international price of crude oil rose by 106.7pc on a YoY basis. Currently, the government aims to increase agriculture productivity for food security and self-sufficiency to counter food inflation by offering Agri-loans. While the finance division in its recent report claimed that taking into account new price impulses in November and the low base effect, inflation would remain between 8.5 and 9.5 per cent, but the November inflation has already surpassed the projected figure.
Food inflation is still at a higher level as in urban areas it jumped by 11.9pc in November on a yearly basis and 3.9pc on a monthly basis, whereas the respective growth in prices in rural areas was 8.6pc and 3.3pc. According to a finance division report, food prices have risen globally due to shortage of supply of commodities and high demand. Pakistan has also been affected, as the country is a net importer of food items especially wheat, sugar, pulses, and edible oil. The report says the government has already announced Rs120 billion package, jointly funded by the federal and provincial governments, to provide a 30pc discount on ghee, flour and pulses to 130 million less privileged people ...... Source:dawn.com