‘Negotiating against itself’
Sawmill jobs at risk as softwood lumber deal appears to fade
Canadian jobs and sawmills across the country are increasingly at risk because of fading prospects they will avoid a new round of U.S. duties on imported softwood lumber, according to an industry analyst.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Quinn says he expects the United States will impose duties of at least 25 per cent in mid2017 and that will put pressure on Canadian producers.
“They’ll be mills shut right across Canada because nobody’s making the kind of money that they’d have to pay in the duties,” Quinn said in an interview.
He expects at least five mills to be affected in British Columbia but declined to say how many sawmills or jobs could be impacted in other provinces.
Quebec-based producer Resolute Forest Products said jobs would also be at risk if Canada accepts a U.S. proposal that would put a 24 per cent quota on Canadian imports.
“We don’t have a big enough market in Canada to sell our product and so what ends up happening is there is a greater risk of capacity having to be closed,” said spokesman Seth Kursman.
The company, which operates about 20 sawmills in Canada, believes the federal government should push for free trade because Quebec’s forestry system is now marketbased and Ontario subsides are inconsequential.
“We believe that Canada shouldn’t be rushing to the U.S. and asking for an agreement. Canada is negotiating against itself right now.”
Kursman said western producers are in a different situation than their eastern counterparts because they own 39 sawmills in the U.S. south and have developed markets in Asia, which give them a hedge against U.S. trade restrictions.