St. FX prof predicts MacKay would win leadership
ANTIGONISH, N.S. — St. Francis Xavier political science professor Jim Bickerton believes Peter MacKay will run for, and likely win, the Conservative Party leadership.
Like many, Bickerton, who specializes in Canadian politics, said he had been expecting Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer’s resignation following the Liberals minority win in the Oct. 21 election. He was a bit surprised, however, about the allegations that Scheer used party money to pay his kid’s private school tuition. The issue seemed to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back when it comes to the party’s relationship with its current leader.
“That came out of nowhere,” Bickerton said.
Given MacKay’s criticism of how the Conservative Party fared in the last election, Bickerton believes it is only a matter of time before the former Central Nova MP and Conservative heavyweight announces his intentions to run. If he does, Bickerton believes he’ll be a top contender.
“I think he’s sitting pretty good right now. His name is the most prominent name out there.”
But he says MacKay is wise to not look too eager and to hold off officially announcing a run.
“I think it would be better for him to just wait a bit and see how this plays out over the next little while.”
He believes MacKay’s comments that he needs to discuss it with family and supporters first is the right approach for now. But, if the Conservative Party decides to turn the April convention into the date for selecting a new leader, it will require quick action on the part of all those interested in running for leadership.
“Then it’s all hands on deck,” Bickerton said.
WHAT MAKES MACKAY A STRONG CANDIDATE?
MacKay has a lot going for him when it comes to political weight, Bickerton believes. He’s a seasoned politician, effective, intelligent and articulate. In addition to that, he’s weathered some difficult episodes, including the merger of the Progressive Conservatives with the Canadian Alliance Party.
“He was one of the best ministers, frankly, in the Harper government,” Bickerton said.
Where once MacKay would have struggled with voters in the more socially Conservative West, Bickerton said, this most recent election indicated a reaction — at least in the East — against western social conservatism that could bode well for MacKay, who is more moderate. Because each constituency has an equal say in choosing the Conservative Party leader, Bickerton said it could work in MacKay’s favour. The system allows him to gain leadership votes in Eastern and Central Canada, that are overall less conservative than some Western ridings, but still carry as much weight in choosing a leader.
THE FUTURE
Should MacKay run and win the leadership, Bickerton believes he will return to run in Central Nova at his first opportunity.
“I think he’ll be pretty confident about being able to take the constituency,” Bickerton said.
That said, Liberal MP Sean Fraser is a significant candidate as Central Nova’s current MP. Bickerton noted Fraser won handedly in the race against Conservative candidate George Canyon in the last election in what was expected to be a much closer matchup.
But for MacKay it would be a matter of pride.
“There’s a tradition of going back to your home base and where your political career started,” Bickerton said. “It would seem odd to me if he decided to run downtown Toronto.”
Given the current minority government situation, Bickerton predicts there will be a new federal election called in about two years.
“It’s unusual for a minority government to go longer than that, although it’s quite possible,” he said.
He believes a MacKay-led Conservative Party would fare better against Trudeau’s Liberals than Scheer’s did. He noted that part of Scheer’s problem was that he wasn’t able to project gravitas.
“That won’t be Peter’s problem. He cuts a good figure politically.”
To be successful, the Conservatives need to enter the next election with an authentic climate change policy and a more centrist stand on social issues, he said.
Bickerton said it’s interesting to note that the Liberal Party seems to have reevaluated since the last election.
“You’ll have noticed he’s been keeping quite a low profile,” Bickerton said of Trudeau. “That’s likely to continue.”