Provincial election race expected to tighten

Tim Houston is remarkably upbeat for the leader of a political party that’s trailed Nova Scotia’s governing Liberals by 20-plus per cent in public opinion polls for more than a year.

The leader of the province’s Progressive Conservatives knows that the Liberals’ lead is primarily the product of the COVID bounce – a sharp increase in popularity bestowed on governments and leaders following the arrival of the COVID-causing coronavirus, also more than a year ago.

Much of the initial bounce can be attributed to the rally-‘round-theflag effect. In times of trouble, folks tend to stand behind their leaders, at least as long as those leaders are taking them through the crisis.

The verdict of Nova Scotian voters, like those across Atlantic Canada, is that so far, their governments are doing just that.

But a sharp increase in popularity can beget a precipitous fall should there be a change in the conditions that drove the increase in the first place.

ONTARIO EXAMPLE

If you need an example to illustrate the previous assertion, look to Ontario. Premier Doug Ford’s popularity jumped by more than 25 per cent in the early days of the pandemic, when his government was perceived to be doing – mostly – the right things.

Ford’s government lost ground but maintained a lead in polls through the second and into the third waves of COVID to hit Ontario.

But that lead disappeared in fewer than seven days, marked, as they were, by fits and starts, flips and flops in the Ontario government’s effort to bring the latest COVID surge under control.

Abacus Data found a nine per cent increase – in just a week – in the number of Ontarians who view Ford negatively. Only 28 per cent of Ontarians now have a positive impression of Ford, and that’s down 11 per cent in the same, single week. That is a precipitous fall.

It’s also consistent with what many pollsters and pundits have been suggesting almost since the pandemic began. The popularity and voter support brought about by governments’ handling of the crisis is a mile wide, but an inch deep.

In other words, the broad public support many governments – particularly on the East Coast – enjoy is real but volatile. It can vanish as quickly as it appeared should the government put a foot wrong, especially if that wrong step leads to an increase in COVID cases or risk.

POLICIES AND PLANS

Houston isn’t counting on an Ontario-type disaster befalling Iain Rankin’s Liberal government, nor does he want to see that happen, given it means an increase in COVID cases here.

The leader of the official opposition believes that when Nova Scotians turn their attention to electing a provincial government, their decision will be based on more than the province’s COVID case count.

In the year prior to the arrival of COVID, polls consistently put Nova Scotia’s PCs within striking distance of the Liberals. Indeed, the Tories led some polls.

The political conditions, including the Liberal government’s record, that created that pre-pandemic political dynamic – where an election would be a toss up – are still with us, but obscured by the real and present danger.

When Nova Scotians are asked to decide which party will govern the province for the next four years, Houston is confident they’ll look at the health, education and economic plans his party has already released, with more to come.

Once every four or five years, during an election campaign, the policies and plans of opposition parties get equal – or roughly equal – treatment in the news media as those of the governing party.

Nova Scotia’s Tories believe that their proposals will withstand scrutiny and stack up well against anything the Liberals or NDP have to offer.

FAMILIAR FACES

The PCs also plan to go into the election – expected this summer or fall, but legally required by May 30, 2022 – better organized than their opponents. And, the Tories will run more incumbent MLAs than either of the other main parties.

All 18 PC members of the legislature plan to reoffer. One of the five New Democrats in the House – Halifax Needham’s Lisa Roberts – is leaving to run for the federal party and, at last count, 10 of the 26 Liberals in the legislature are not reoffering.

If the province can bring the current outbreak, centred in and around Halifax, under control and then maintain low case numbers through the spring, while more Nova Scotians get vaccinated, the Liberals will be well positioned for an election late summer or early fall.

Under those circumstances, the election could essentially become a referendum on the government’s handling of the pandemic, and that’s the Liberals’ election to win.

If, on the other hand, the Tories can effectively remind voters of the Liberals’ entire eight-year record and go toe-to-toe with them on plans for the future, we could have a horse race.

For the record, the most recent poll of decided voters in Nova Scotia, by Narrative Research, has the provincial Liberals at about 50 per cent, the Tories at 26, and the NDP at 18.