Canadians like steady hand: Poll
OTTAWA — Centrist politics rule, but Conservatives still own the polls.
That’s the interesting conclusion to be gleaned from the Manning Centre’s 2013 Barometer survey, now in its fourth year.
The main takeaway for political strategists? There are no easy answers in taming the electorate and no voter can be taken for granted.
Released to coincide with this weekend’s Manning Conference in Ottawa — and to inspire many of its panel conversations — the survey attempts to gauge the political inclinations of all Canadians. QMI Agency was given an exclusive look at the survey prior to its Friday release.
Carleton University professor Andre Turcotte conducted the online poll that surveyed 1,054 people in early February.
“I was surprised by the resilience of party loyalty to the Liberals,” Turcotte said when asked what stuck out the most.
The Liberals received 19% of the votes in 2011, knocking them down to the third party. Yet apparently it’s the party more Canadians identify with than any other. Twenty-six percent identify most with the Liberals. Although the Conservatives are at 25% and the survey does have a 3.1% margin of error within a 95% confidence interval. The NDP follows at 17%.
But let’s add to that headscratcher. If there were a federal election tomorrow, the Conservatives would capture 35% of decided voters, with the Liberals and NDP at 29% and 26% respectively. Huh?
It seems like, come election time, they go with the steady hand. After all, when it comes to top concerns, the economy is No. 1 for 19% of people. Social programs/child care, typically Liberal fare, garner less than 1%.
That doesn’t mean people reject them. Just that when it comes to setting priorities, it’s all about the economy.
So maybe Canadians want to be Liberal, but the party is now too darn left for them, as has been suggested in recent years.
After all, when given the choice between left, right, centre and undecided, almost half of respondents call themselves centrists.
Judging by the rhetoric heard throughout the Liberal leadership roadshow, one would think Canadians are just begging to dump that dastardly villain Stephen Harper.
But when you look at the qualities valued in a leader, things don’t look so positive for the anointed one, Justin Trudeau. When asked what qualities are important for a politician to have, charisma — arguably Trudeau’s only strength — ranked last for respondents. Only 21% consider charisma very important, whereas 56% said hard-working/industrious characteristics are very important.
Although Trudeau could gain from some good ol’ fashioned Conservative bashing. What comes to mind when told someone is conservative? Top response: “Pro- wealthy/ pro- business/ money/greedy.” Sounds like a caricature. But at least conservatives will be happy to hear “idiotic/ need mental help” captured less than 1% of the vote. Other aspects of the survey will reinforce that Canadians, while claiming to be centrists, hold views more on the Conservative side.
They believe aboriginals themselves should be held primarily responsible for their problems and that we should explore alternate funding for health care over raising taxes.
Conservatives can feel comfortable knowing the issues they’ve been championing aren’t that far from general sentiment. However they shouldn’t put their feet up entirely. The Liberals can still bite at their heels.
But it’s the Liberals who should do some soul-searching when faced with data like this (too bad they’re not in the middle of a leadership race, because that would be the perfect occasion for soulsearching).
Sure, Canadians say they’re centrists, but what exactly does that mean? Former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff used to warn the country was slowly transforming via incremental conservatism. Judging by this survey, it seems he was right. So if the Liberals saw it coming, why didn’t they adapt?