Is Olynyk an expiring commodity for Heat?
With Kelly Olynyk back in the news this week with the knee injury that has him temporary sidelined from the Canadian national men’s basketball team, it’s a reminder that the Miami Heat are approaching a crossroads with the player who ended last season as their starting power forward.
On one hand, Olynyk still has two years left on the four-year, US$50-million contract he signed with the Heat in the 2017 offseason. On the other, he has the right to opt out next summer into free agency.
At $13.2 million for 2020-21, he just might do that, based on where salaries went this past off-season and the slim pickings on the 2020 National Basketball Association free-agent market.
ESPN’s projections of the top power forwards available in 2020 free agency have the top of the list as Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Serge Ibaka, Marcus Morris and Jae Crowder. A repeat of his play last season could have Olynyk as a viable alternative.
And that could create decisions for the Heat.
As it is, if Olynyk remains on the books under his current contract, the Heat likely can maximize about $12 million in 2020 cap space, assuming that James Johnson doesn’t opt out of his $16 million for 2020-21 (an assumption that also means parting with Goran Dragic).
However, should Olynyk opt out, it could drive that figure upwards of $25 million. While that’s not enough for a max-tier free agent, it would put the Heat among a half dozen or so teams able to reach that level.
As with Dragic, and to a lesser degree Meyers Leonard, that could have the Heat weighing to cash out with Olynyk at February’s NBA trading deadline, to at least get something in return rather than a July parting with nothing in return.
That, of course, could further weaken the 2019-20 approach at a time the Heat are paying Jimmy Butler $32.7 million, in the first year of his four-year deal that includes an opt-out after the third season.
The alternative could be reupping with Olynyk next summer on a long-term contract. The complication with such an approach is that it could then freeze the Heat out of 2021 free agency, when the robust outside possibilities could include Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bradley Beal, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Blake Griffin, Jrue Holiday and Victor Oladipo.
It is why every game with Olynyk, especially the early season ones, will matter, because by the trading deadline the Heat may have to know where they are headed in their power rotation and how Olynyk, still only 28, fits into that mix.
If James Johnson re-emerges, it could make an Olynyk parting easier. If Derrick Jones Jr., an impending 2020 free agent, continues to bulk up and proves viable in such a role, it adds a potential lower-cost element to the equation.
Or perhaps even after casting Hassan Whiteside aside the Heat recognize that Bam Adebayo’s true NBA calling is at power forward.
Olynyk being forced to step aside for Canada prior to the World Cup certainly would be a personally painful moment, one at the moment not anticipated.
From a Heat perspective, what would matter most would be losing any time with Olynyk in a process that could have implications with the Heat’s salary cap.