If he loses massively tomorrow, what will happen to Donald Trump?
“Could you imagine if I lose? My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics. I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.” — Donald Trump, Oct. 18, Macon, Ga.
By all means leave your country, Mr. President. Somehow the American people will manage without you, but don’t even think of looking in Canada’s direction. You would be a welcome here as, say, another wave of COVID-19. An overwhelming majority of Canadians will be cheering tomorrow night for your defeat, a defeat so massive that you would be laughed out of court if you tried to challenge the outcome or contest the legitimacy of the election.
As far as Canada and other liberal democracies are concerned, the second worst outcome tomorrow — second only to a Trump re-election — would be his defeat by a margin narrow enough to encourage him to hang on, to refuse to vacate the White House while he fights his way up to the Supreme Court, now conveniently packed with conservative justices.
Such uncertainty, aggravated by an erratic Trump with nothing to lose, would make “normal” Canada-U.S. relations impossible. And when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talks about being prepared for all eventualities, he is also thinking about the potential for violence by far-right Trump supporters, some of them uncomfortably close to the Canadian border.
Joe Biden does not set Canadian or American hearts racing. He is simply the alternative, a one-time, likely one-term vehicle for getting rid of the man he calls the worst president in American history and for restoring a measure of dignity, honesty and truthfulness to American political life. If he can also flip the Senate and cleanse the Washington swamp of Trump enablers like Sen. Mitch McConnell and Sen. Lindsey Graham, he will earn the gratitude of most Americans and the admiration of Canadians.
No one would expect a “bromance” between Trudeau and Biden like the purported one between Trudeau and Barack Obama or the closeness that existed between Jean Chrétien and Bill Clinton or Brian Mulroney and Ronald Reagan. Personal relations can smooth differences between nations, but shared objectives and ideals matter more.
On the bilateral front, Biden would almost certainly kill the Keystone XL pipeline. He made the cancellation one of his prominent campaign promises, and the Trudeau government, still seeking a balance between resource development and environmental protection, may have to live without that pipeline. But Biden’s rhetoric about “Building Back Better” — restoring domestic manufacturing with a “Buy American” government purchasing policy — is nothing new. Canadian negotiators should be able to work around the policy without working up a sweat the way they had to in the renegotiation of NAFTA with Trump’s people.
On the global front, Trudeau and Biden administrations would be in sync where Trudeau-Trump conspicuously were not. Both support the World Health Organization, United Nations, NATO, NORAD, Planned Parenthood and assorted international agencies in the field of human rights.
More important, Trudeau and Biden share a commitment to, and a faith in, democracy — a commitment Trump has never made and a faith he regularly spurned.
But back to Trump’s future. In defeat, he would be in demand by multiple prosecutors and courts for income tax and other alleged misdeeds in his business career. He was trying to be sarcastic when he talked about having to leave the country. Should it come to that, however, where, speculatively, might a fugitive Trump find refuge?
Well, Trump’s pal, Vladimir Putin, has just granted Edward Snowden — wanted for leaking classified National Security Agency documents — permanent resident status in Russia. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has a soft spot for Trump for letting him keep his missiles. And Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, owes him a few big ones.
If need be, Trump would have friendly despots to turn to. But not to Canada, please.
Trudeau and Biden share a commitment to, and a faith in, democracy — a commitment Trump has never made and a faith he regularly spurned.