Solving the rotation riddle
Workload for Jays’ starting pitchers remains murky heading into season’s final weeks
BALTIMORE, Md. — When the Blue Jays embarked on their sixman rotation experiment about a month ago, they had to understand there would be times like this.
Times of uncertainty, times of confusion, times when hard decisions would have to be made.
The just-completed series against the Orioles was simple and straightforward. Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez had been pencilled in for as long as 10 days in advance.
But while that was going on, the immediate future beyond that was, and remains, murky.
Throughout the series against the Orioles, manager John Gibbons kept silent about his pitching plans for the three-game series that begins Friday in rainsoaked St. Petersburg, still awash in downpours related to tropical storm Hermine churning away in the Gulf of Mexico.
Indeed, there was more certainty regarding the confused nature of this tropical storm than there was about the Blue Jay pitching plans.
If the ballclub sticks to its previous rotation, then Francisco Liriano, Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey would pitch in that order against the Rays. The fact that the manager wouldn’t confirm a rotation suggests they have something else in mind.
With a month to go — 29 games in all — and six starting pitchers, something has to give as the season dwindles down to a few games and weeks. Complicating the picture is the perceived need to protect Sanchez from overwork. How should it all shake out?
Ranking the starters and their workload:
Marco Estrada
After Monday’s sterling effort a against the Orioles, there seems to be some agreement that he is the one Blue Jay starter who needs to stay on normal rest. Estrada is a feel pitcher who likes to maintain his five-day routine. Monday, after a couple of starts where he seemed a bit lost, he looked like his old self against a difficult Baltimore lineup, tossing seven strong innings, allowing just one run on four hits, including JJ Hardy’s solo home run.
If that’s the case, then Estrada’s normal schedule would see him pitch Saturday at Tropicana Field, with other pitchers having to adjust their schedules to work around that.
J.A. Happ
Happ is having a career year and he, too, might benefit from getting back into a more regular routine though it’s not quite as obvious as Estrada’s need. Regardless, as the games dwindle, it’s important for Happ to be in a good place, physically and mentally. He was not impressed with his overall performance on Tuesday, even though he was able to keep his team in the game without his best stuff.
Marcus Stroman
In all the furor over Sanchez’s workload, it’s been easy to forget that Stroman is still building his strength and innings in much the same fashion.
His biggest workload occured in 2014 when he pitched 165 innings, counting 130 in the big leagues and 35 at Buffalo. A year ago, as he recovered from a torn ACL, he pitched only 53 innings, total. That includes the minor leagues, regular season major leagues and playoffs. That’s why the six-man rotation is probably a good idea for him as the team considers his future as bright and promising as that of Sanchez.
TORONTO — Ricky Ray used the word “funk” when he looks at the Argonauts’ past three games — three home losses — with only one game where the club had a chance to win.
He was encouraged at how the Argos prepared for Wednesday’s game against B.C., but ultimately they lost on the game’s final play when a field goal sent the Argos to their latest loss.
They practised well, played hard, left everything out on the field and yet still lost, saddling the team with a 4-5 record at the halfway point of the season.
“We have to continue to get better,’’ said Ray. “The good teams are going to get better and start separating themselves. We have to continue to find that improvement and not have any steps back in our preparation from here on in.
“Hopefully if we continue to prepare hard some of those plays will go our way and we’ll be able to make them.”
There doesn’t seem to any internal issues with this team, no signs of players outwardly frustrated at their recent plight and how the team has lost all five of its games at home, winning once and now forced to regroup quickly for a Labour Day game in Hamilton, followed by a return game in Toronto on Sept. 11.
The Argos caught a break in the schedule by having three games, all at home, during a 31-day stretch.
Clearly, they failed to capitalized on it and now the schedule turns ugly, a tough matchup against the Ticats, who match up very well against the Argos, and then three games within a span of 13 days.
“As frustrated as guys are, we’re starting to feel that each week you have to play your best football and at some we’re going to get tired of not being on the winning end of these games,’’ added Ray. “We have to turn it into something positive as far working hard, doing all the things we need to do during the week to give us the best chance to
R.A. Dickey
Because of his age and the unique pitch he throws, there don’t seem to be any rules for Dickey. He’s a workhorse who can throw as many or as few innings as his bosses require. There is always concern about a ‘feel’ pitch like the knuckleball, where control is so important win a game.”
It’s become obvious this team cannot win when turnovers are being committed, when plays aren’t being made and when physical and mental mistakes are being produced.
In other words, there isn’t much margin for error with this team given how it’s constituted, the apparent weaknesses on either side of the ball.
The Argos were simply not good enough against Winnipeg and Edmonton when they took early leads and then caved, for a lack of a better word.
They were good enough to give themselves a chance against the Lions, but when the defence had to make a stop it didn’t, allowing B.C. to run out the clock before kicking the winning field goal from 30 yards.
A key penalty on special teams, a defensive penalty that negated a Ricky Foley touchdown, an offence that was boring and predictable after the unit took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a quick 7-0 lead, there are a myriad issues that need to be addressed.
In Toronto’s last three games, and so elusive at times. Dickey is a reliable artist with the pitch, or at least as reliable as is possible, but the unpredictability of the knuckler makes him a difficult choice as a starter in a playoff scenario.
Francisco Liriano
If you’re ranking the six starters in terms of recent effectiveness, Liriano probably has earned a ranking of No. 6 and when changes to the rotation become necessary, he is likely to be the first to have his schedule altered.
Over the long haul, and that includes next season, Liriano might turn out to be one of the shrewdest acquisitions at the 2016 nonwaiver deadline. Unfortunately, he has joined a rotation that has been the best in the American League this year and that means there are many good options ahead of him on the depth chart.
If the manager chooses to go back down to five starters, or even four, Liriano still has potential value as a lefty working out of the bullpen, either as a specialist or as a two- or three-inning reliever.
Aaron Sanchez
A year from now, all this posturing about Sanchez’s workload will be a distant memory. He is destined to be the ace of this pitching staff and might be that already. That is why it has become so important, even though there is no definitive evidence at hand, to keep tabs on his workload. He’s now at 162 innings, with still three or four starts to go. That will put him in the 180-inning range and he’s never been abover 130-some innings previously. Working on 10 days of rest, Sanchez was a fully-charged weapon on Wednesday. The earliest you’ll see him pitch again would probably be in New York on Wednesday in the finale of this three-city, nine-game road trip. the Argos have led, respectively, by scores of 10-0, 8-0 and 7-0.
Good teams, especially, at home build on early game momentum and create separation.
It doesn’t take a football genius to figure out that this Argos team is not good and it threatens to get even worse when you look at the back-to-back set versus Hamilton.
“It’s on us,’’ said veteran offensive tackle Chris Van Zeyl. “We have to fix the little things to get better. We made too many mistakes and too many penalties (in losing 16-13 to the Lions).”
There’s no big-play component on offence, a suspect secondary that gives up too much, no pass rush outside of Shawn Lemon, who has three two-sack games as an Argo and no margin for error.
It’s way too early and far too premature to be pushing the panic button, but these are troubling times in Argoland and the immediate future does not look good.
What the Argos need to do is play clean football and as close to perfection in all three phases as possible because as of now there’s no other way this team can win.