When it comes to Trump, Ottawa must avoid drama
The Trump administration has been likened to a “team of rivals.” But this White House is beginning to look more like a team, and a rival — the latter being the president himself.
In important areas, Trump’s views diverge from those of key members of his nascent cabinet. The most recent example is Defence Secretary James Mattis, whose assertive reiteration of America’s traditional Pacific security pacts this week could hardly be more at odds with remarks his new boss made last year.
In the spring of 2016, candidate Trump was telling the Japanese and South Koreans to pay up for the privilege of U.S. naval protection, or do that work themselves. Somewhere along the way, the new White House has taken an enormous step back towards a conventional Republican stance of enforcing the 70-year-old Pax Americana. This has implications for Canada. In the spring of 2016, during work visits to Japan and Taiwan, I encountered a wave of official and popular unease not unlike the sentiment in Canada today. What will Trump do, if given power? How can the actions of such an erratic personality be anticipated? Would he pull the U.S. Navy out of the Western Pacific? Would long-standing global security relationships dissolve overnight, leading to chaos, or war?
And yet a year on, as I scan reports from Japan and Taiwan, the prevailing mood is one of dawning relief. Mattis’s statements leave no room for interpretation. He has re-asserted that the Senkaku Islands, subject of a dispute between Beijing and Tokyo that began years before Trump came on the political scene, are under U.S. protection, inasmuch as they are administered by allied Japan. Though the Obama administration also hewed to this view, it was more circumspect.
Trump is, of course, unlike any other American president. But in one respect he appears to have something in common with President Ronald Reagan: He’s a delegator, who apparently doesn’t fear putting strong personalities in key roles, even if they at times disagree with him.
The Canadian perspective is simply this: Though the president himself is a loose cannon, his defence and foreign policy team is not — and their views appear to hold some sway. It seems reasonable to surmise that, as they hold to more conventional Republican positions about Asia-Pacific security, Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Mattis and Tillerson will do likewise closer to home. That may have a bearing on the trilateral relationship between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
According to anonymous insiders, Trump and his advisors are in something of a wounds-licking phase. It seems likely that figures such as Mattis, Tillerson and UN Ambassador Nikki Halley will inform the president he can’t keep America safe by infuriating all its friends. At that point, the individuals who make up the body of the U.S. government will be searching for pragmatic partners among traditional allies — Canada first among them.
The temptation for Canadian MPs (with the New Democratic Party running well ahead of the pack) to lash out at Trump and his immigration policies is understandable. The net effect of such venting would be to undercut the more traditionalist voices around the president who are most likely to be Canada’s allies, in the event of a major disruptive event such as the collapse of the North American Free Trade Agreement. And, as we saw this week in Japan, the Trump administration can still surprise to the upside.
The Liberal government has so far struck a disciplined tone, asserting Canadian values while protecting Canadian interests. It’s the right tone, unsatisfying though it may be to anyone seeking more drama in Ottawa.