Local riding may be the closest race in Ontario: Professor

The election in Peterborough-Kawartha may be the closest race in the province, a political science professor says – and it’s a two-way race between the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP.

Barry Kay is an associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University, and does election projections for the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy.

“It’s perhaps – on paper – the closest (race) in the province,” he wrote to The Examiner in an email on Monday. “It’s reflective of the tight race for popular vote, province-wide.”

Meanwhile another election projection called a win for the Conservatives in Peterborough-Kawartha on Monday afternoon after having considered it too close to call up until now.

The Election Prediction Project (electionprediction.org) projected a win for Smith at about 1 p.m. on Monday.

The Election Prediction Project analyzes fact and opinion in individual ridings to make predictions, as well as solicits public opinion prior to an election.

When The Examiner reached the candidates on Monday, they were all out canvassing – and they all said they’d be knocking on doors right until the last moments of the campaign on Thursday.

“You never know until the last ballot is cast – you can never take anything for granted,” Smith said.

There were 16 debates during the campaign period, and Smith said he missed three: once to attend a wake, once to take his wife out for their 10th wedding anniversary and once because he didn’t know about the debate until after the fact.

Meanwhile he said he’s been canvassing since the day after his nomination in September, and figures he’s been to 34,000 of the 54,000 doors in the riding.

“I’m on my fourth pair of shoes,” he said. “And I’m down 17 pounds – simply from walking.”

Meanwhile NDP candidate Sean Conway has worn out three pairs of shoes canvassing.

“And I’m due to buy another pair this week,” he said.

His strategy for the final four days of the campaign involves lots more door-knocking.

“I still want to talk to a couple thousand more people by Thursday morning,” he said Monday.

“I’m really confident with the team we’ve got – the reception at the door is really, really positive,” he added. “We’re just pushing, pushing, pushing.”

Liberal candidate Jeff Leal was also out canvassing Monday.

“I’m very optimistic,” he said. “Look, we’ll be going full-bore right to the very end.”

Leal said he thought it was “unselfish and courageous” of Kathleen Wynne to tell voters she knows they won’t win – and to ask people to vote strategically to ensure a minority NDP or PC government.

Leal said he’s “cautiously optimistic”, and plans to canvass right until the last moment.

“We’re working flat-out,” he said.

Green party candidate Gianne Broughton said she too will canvass to the end.

“Every time we go out, we find more supporters,” she stated in an email Monday. “We also find that many people are undecided.”

If people need persuasion, she wrote, she tells them the Green party will bring “good, clean-economy jobs to Peterborough” as well as social programs.