Coalition Avenir Quebec surging toward victory
CAQ win would end 48-year provincial reign by Liberals and Parti Québécois
MONTREAL — The Coalition Avenir Quebec surged out to a commanding lead in Monday’s provincial election, outstripping the incumbent Liberals and the Parti Québécois by a wide margin.
The numbers began flowing in following a tightly fought campaign that many believe would shake up the province’s electoral map. About 35 minutes after polls closed, the Coalition was leading or elected in more than 55 ridings, while the Liberal tally was 30. A party needs 63 seats to form a majority.
At the end of the 39-day campaign, two leaders had stayed ahead of the pack: the Coalition’s Francois Legault and the Liberals’ Philippe Couillard, the premier. But even if the overall vote count is close, polls had suggested Legault’s seven-year-old Coalition could capture many more ridings than the Liberals because of its support among francophone voters. Legault was the first of the leaders to be elected in his own riding as he stormed to victory in L’Assomption, northeast of Montreal.
A victory by the right-leaning Coalition would deliver something Quebec hasn’t seen in 48 years — a provincial government headed by party other than the Liberals or the Parti Québécois.
The Union Nationale won the 1966 election and held power until 1970. Since then, however, it’s been a two-party show.
The presumed emergence of Legault’s party, which won just 22 seats in 2014 to finish third, would likely come in large part at the expense of the once-mighty PQ. Polls have consistently indicated the pro-independence Parti Québécois, which is led by Jean-Francois Lisee, will come in a distant third. The party has steadily lost support after spending about 20 of the last 48 years in office.
The PQ’s raison d’être — Quebec sovereignty — has lost its lustre with voters. For the first time in decades, talk of a referendum on independence is not a ballot-box issue. The federalist Liberals and the Coalition, even though it’s led by former PQ cabinet minister Legault, have no interest in holding a referendum.
Faced with the shift in public sentiment, Lisee entered the race with a vow not to hold a referendum on sovereignty in his first mandate as premier. The party, perhaps, that’s discussed referendums the most during the campaign is the smaller, proindependence Quebec solidaire, which won two seats in the 2014 election.