Therrien has strong lead in mayoral race, new poll indicates

City Hall columnist David Goyette hired Campaign Research to poll local voters on Monday’s election

A new poll indicates that mayoralty candidate Diane Therrien has a substantial lead in voter support over incumbent mayor Daryl Bennett.

The poll was conducted on Oct. 9 and 10 by Toronto-based Campaign Research, a full-service research and strategy firm that has substantial experience in public affairs consulting. The firm held Gold Seal Certification from the former Market Research Intelligence Association. In addition, it has more than 60 years of research experience and is frequently quoted in major Canadian media. The firm’s CEO oversaw all aspects of the research, which featured a randomly selected sample of 534 Peterborough city residents aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted by telephone interactive voice response methodology using cell phones and landlines.

The results indicate that 60 per cent of respondents would vote for Therrien while 23 per cent would vote for Bennett, with 17 per cent undecided. When those who are leaning toward voting for a candidate were added, 62 per cent indicated that they would vote for or are leaning towards Therrien, while 28 per cent indicated the same for Bennett. Only 10 per cent were undecided, indicating a solid majority of respondents with determined or likely opinions.

These results are consistent with the overall approval/disapproval rate that respondents have of Bennett’s performance as mayor: 29 per cent approved of the job he has done as mayor, while 49 per cent disapproved and 22 per cent did not know. The mayor’s performance approval rate was 27 per cent for men and 31 per cent for women. For respondents over 35 years of age, all age segments had higher disapproval rates than approval rates of the mayor’s performance, including seniors 65 years of age or older.

For respondents who were 35 years of age or older, Therrien’s support holds across all age segments; her support among seniors 65 years or older doubles Bennett’s. In terms of gender, Therrien has support from 71 per cent of males and 54 per cent of females. While Bennett has only a minority of support from both men and women, his support is notably stronger among women than it is men.

I am aware of uncertainty in some local quarters about the authenticity of the results of any sampled survey. In this case, some 534 city residents were surveyed from a random sample that was weighted to Peterborough’s age and gender demographics, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. How can that accurately reflect the opinion of the whole city? Random sampling means that you can successfully draw a result from a larger group by examining a sample of it. The laws of probability mean that as long as you target a small but representative sample of the voting population, the results can be accurately extrapolated to reflect overall voter opinion.

The polling was commissioned at my personal expense. I took this action for three reasons: as a service to many inquiring readers; a belief that peoples’ voices should be heard during election campaigns; and an interest in demonstrating the value of a campaign tool not typically used in this community. I have no personal interest in the outcome of the polling or the election.

It will be tempting for candidates Bennett and Therrien to pull out the old saw that the only poll that counts is the one on Oct. 22. While that poll delivers a final result, this poll provides a critical snapshot of voter sentiment and should inject meaningful life into the final few days of the campaign.