Stormy waters threaten to swamp Jagmeet Singh

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has been unofficially campaigning in his adopted riding of Burnaby South, British Columbia, for more than a month now. On Sunday, he held a rally to mobilize his troops. The only thing missing in Singh’s bid to finally get a seat in the House of Commons is the election itself.

It was widely expected that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would call that byelection and two others last week or over the weekend. But he didn’t make the call, raising the spectre of Singh not being able to get into the House until March. That’s more bad news for Singh and his party at a time when they really need the opposite.

Consider just some of the challenges Singh faces. Fundraising for the party is stalled, as is its popularity in opinion polls. The party’s wishy-washy stance on the pipeline debate is hurting him in British Columbia because he hasn’t opposed Trans-Mountain, and in Alberta, where NDP support is weak, it’s getting weaker because he doesn’t share the provincial NDP’s propipeline position.

In Saskatchewan, Singh faces an internal revolt from NDPers angry that he refuses to readmit Erin Weir, the controversial MP booted from caucus over questionable behaviour toward women.

Support in Manitoba and Ontario continues to be weak. Even Northern Ontario, which is traditional NDP territory, is in play. And in Quebec, where maintaining support built by former leader Jack Layton is crucial to NDP fortunes, polls show the party and its hard-won seats are in big trouble.

Singh is furious with Trudeau for stalling the election call. His frustration is understandable, to a point. It’s painfully obvious that Trudeau is playing politics with the Burnaby vote. But Singh is also using the byelection controversy to deflect attention from his broader woes. He accused the PM of undermining “the bedrock” of our democracy. That’s a stretch, to understate the point. And Singh calls Trudeau’s tactics “unprecedented,” which is just false.

Trudeau isn’t playing nice. But the prime minister has the right to schedule byelections as long as he doesn’t wait longer than six months after the seat has been vacated. And stalling for partisan reasons isn’t unusual. Trudeau has done it once before, and Stephen Harper did the same thing on at least two occasions, one of them being when Jim Flaherty died leaving Oshawa-Whitby vacant.

The average delay between an MP vacating and the resulting byelection is about 90 days, and in Burnaby the gap stands at 43 days.

So don’t buy Singh’s hyperbole about Trudeau’s undemocratic approach to byelections.

All that said, Trudeau would be wise to make the call soon. He likes to claim he is different than other politicians, such as Harper. But on this file he’s being every bit as partisan and manipulative. If he wants to demonstrate that he is indeed different, he should call the Burnaby vote, if not the others.

If polls can be believed, the Burnaby race is too tight to call. There’s no guarantee Singh will win, and if he loses he’s done. If he wins, he gets a chance to show his mettle in the House, which should be interesting, because if he doesn’t shine, his future as leader could well be short and not very sweet.

Trudeau would be wise to make the call soon. He likes to claim he is different than other politicians, such as Harper. But on this file he’s being every bit as partisan and manipulative.