Four questions for the remaining eight
The National Football League will be hard-pressed to top one of the greatest wild-card weekends in history.
Of course, it was a perfect storm of circumstances that led to three road teams winning and the fourth, the Seattle Seahawks, losing by two points to the
Dallas Cowboys. The four division-winning teams in the wild-card round — the Texans, Cowboys, Ravens and Bears — started four quarterbacks with only one combined game of playoff experience, and faced off against four veteran quarterbacks who have all been to conference championship games or Super Bowls.
The result was a compelling weekend of close matchups — save for the Colts’s 21-7 win over the Texans — capped by the crazy final two minutes of the Eagles’ win over Chicago, which featured a miss by Bears kicker Cody Parkey that clanked off the upright and then the crossbar before falling no good.
Vegas oddsmakers forecast a close weekend, but in looking ahead to the divisional round, they see greater separation in the opponents, giving the home teams around a 6½-point advantage in next weekend’s games. Let’s take a look at the biggest questions entering those matchups.
1. Are the Chargers the best team in the AFC?
They reminded us why they are the most complete team in the AFC during Sunday’s 23-17 win over Baltimore: They have a defence that is up to the level of their offence.
That’s not to say they’re without issues on that side of the ball, as injuries at linebacker have forced them to use seven defensive backs. But the system has worked so far. They are vulnerable to teams that specialize in power running, but that’s not the Patriots, next week’s opponent.
Also in the Chargers’ favour: QB Philip Rivers is healthy and playing his best football. He is four-deep in quality receivers and has a top-level running back in Melvin Gordon.
Sure, the Patriots have the edge in Sunday’s matchup. They are 8-0 at home this season and simply don’t lose home playoff games. On the road this year, however, the Chargers are 7-1 and have a plus-63 point differential. Even though they have to board a plane and fly to a road game, and the Patriots get the support of a home crowd, the Chargers have a decent chance of winning and advancing to the AFC Championship Game.
2. Which of the young quarterbacks will step up?
While the old guard quarterbacks bested the millennials in the wild-card round, the young quarterbacks weren’t overwhelmed.
Dak Prescott showed in Dallas’s win Saturday just how much he has grown since his last two playoff appearances. From the start of the win over Seattle, he connected on passes he missed in his first playoff game in 2016. Part of the reason for his success is Amari Cooper, who is the No. 1 receiver Prescott thought he used to have in Dez Bryant.
He’ll face another young gun in the Rams’ Jared Goff Saturday night, and it will be tough for Prescott to keep pace. On the road this year, Dallas is 3-5 and has averaged only 17.3 points per game. That’s 8.7 points less than the Cowboys average at home. One of these two QBs from the 2016 draft class will earn a berth in the NFC title game.
The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is the likely MVP this year, after throwing for 50 touchdown passes in leading his team to the No. 1 seed. But his game Saturday against the Colts’ Andrew Luck won’t be easy, in one of the best QB matchups we’ve seen in the last few years. The Colts are the NFL’s hottest team and Luck is back to the level he was at his first three seasons in the league.
The key for Mahomes will be making sure he doesn’t press too much going against Luck. The Colts do a great job in pass protection, and ran the ball well in the win over the Texans, so the ingredients are there for them to again have a balanced, efficient offensive attack. If Mahomes makes any early mistakes, it could put them in the difficult position of having to come back against Luck and the Colts.
3. What can the Eagles do to avoid another Saints blowout?
This won’t be easy. On Nov. 18, the Eagles went to New Orleans and lost 48-7. The Saints are rested, healthy and have a huge home-field advantage, going 7-1 this season. Even though this one should be closer than last time, it’s going to be very difficult for the Eagles to pull the upset.
The Eagles went 4-4 on the road this regular season, and outscored opponents by only two points. They have had to patch together their secondary because of injuries, and Trubisky threw for 303 yards against them Sunday. That’s where Drew
Brees can take advantage.
Oddsmakers are giving the Saints a nine-point advantage, the highest of any divisional-round game. The Eagles showed in the Chicago game they are lacking a big, physical back.
Still, it’s amazing what Nick Foles has been able to do in getting the Eagles this far. Perhaps he can summon more magic Sunday.
4. Will the Chiefs’ defence cost them a championship?
I think it will, and so do many people around the NFL I’ve spoken to. They believe in Mahomes. They believe in Andy Reid. But the defence can’t stop the run, and it has major problems in pass coverage.
The Chiefs allow 26.3 points per game. Normally, that translates to seven to nine losses over the course of the season. Mahomes and the offence have overcome it to go 12-4, but it’s been tougher down the stretch. The Chiefs barely escaped with a win over Baltimore. Against playoff-calibre teams, it’s much harder to win shootouts each week.
Saturday’s matchup with the Colts could be exactly that. Luck is playing so well, along with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, that it’s easy to see them putting up 25plus points, and their resurgent young defence could test Mahomes. The best part about the Chiefs defence is their pass rush. They’ll need them to make plays against a Colts team that has been very good in pass protection this season. Mahomes has Super Bowl rings in his future, based on his ability alone. But the defence will have to step up for him to get there this year.