America’s Kurdish allies abandoned again

Donald Trump’s unpredictability is one of his few predictable features.

His rash, apparently unplanned decision to pull American troops from Northern Syria checks all the Trump behaviour boxes. No consultation, even with his own staff — check. No consideration for the impact of others, especially America’s erstwhile allies the Kurds, without whom the diminishment of the Islamic State would not have happened — check. No apparent concern about the destabilizing impact of such a decision — check. Foreign policy by Twitter — check. A damaging commitment that sent his own officials and allies into damage control mode — check.

The timing of this decision may be surprising, but it should surprise no one that Trump wants U.S. troops home. He’s made no bones about that. He is, at heart, an isolationist with little or no concern for America’s broader role on the world stage.

But why now? ISIS isn’t dead, and if all 1,000 or so U.S. troops are withdrawn from Syria, the door will be open for the terror group to gain strength again. America’s Kurdish allies, who Trump refers to as “special,” are vulnerable to attack and possibly annihilation by Turkish forces because the Kurdish militia is viewed as a threat by Turkish leadership.

Who knows why now? Trump recently had a conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and perhaps he wants to curry favour. Maybe he sees the U.S. election approaching and wants to repatriate troops so he can point to that commitment as being kept. Maybe because this is just Trump being Trump.

He initially tweeted that all troops would be withdrawn. Not long after his generals clarified that only about 50 to 100 troops would be moved away from the northern border to other parts of the country to clear space for Turkey’s plan to launch a military incursion and create a security zone, in part to house many of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees displaced into Turkey.

But just because Trump’s initial claim is somewhat debunked, that doesn’t minimize the threat to Kurds and civilians in Syria. Within hours of Trump’s overblown proclamation, Turkish air forces had conducted bombing raids on Kurdish outposts, resulting in at least two civilian deaths and injuries. Turkey’s military incursion is real and could lead to a humanitarian disaster.

Trump says don’t worry. If the Turks do anything that “I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey.” It’s not entirely an empty threat, but it’s probably cold comfort to the Kurds and civilians trapped in harm’s way.

Hopefully Kurdish leadership has a plan to mitigate the risk. It’s not as if this would come as a total surprise, given that the Kurds have been abandoned by two previous American administrations, Richard Nixon’s in 1975 and George H.W. Bush’s in 1991.

Will Trump do anything to help the trapped Kurds, given their loyal service tackling ISIS militants?

There may be lessons in history from other American leaders who abandoned allies.

In 1975, Gerald Ford signed law allowing tens of thousands of Vietnamese, Cambodians and Laotians to resettle in the U.S. after having been left behind when the U.S. retreated from Vietnam.

In 1991, Bush ordered support for hundreds of thousands of Kurds fleeing Saddam Hussein, and Bill Clinton followed with an operation to protect them from the Iraqi dictator.

Will Trump show the moral fibre to offer the same to the Kurds who fought, and died, against ISIS?

Don’t hold your breath.