Alberta independence push faces huge obstacles on many fronts
An Alberta separatist group calling itself Wexit Alberta, a portmanteau taken from the UK Brexit fiasco, has applied with Elections Canada for registered Federal party status. “Brexit” was derived from “Grexit,” the term applied to describe the possible exit of Greece from the European Union during it’s 2012 financial crisis. “Graccident” was also in the global lexicon at that time.
Wexit Alberta is led by a guy in a ball cap; Peter Downing, a former RCMP officer once suspended for uttering threats against his wife. Now he is threatening Canada. Their constitution states “Alberta is a sovereign republic, and has no subordination or obligation to the British Monarchy, Government of Canada, or United Nations.” Their platform includes Universal Declaration of Independence from Canada and secession from the British Commonwealth.
Of course, goals and plans are different things. How much thought has gone into this?
First, there is the not-insignificant matter of the Constitution of Canada; and the Clarity Act (Bill C-20), which came into being as a result of the 1995 Quebec Independence Referendum. The Act affords the House of Commons power to decide whether a proposed referendum question was considered clear before the public vote and whether or not a clear majority had voted. Further, it requires that all provinces and the First Nations be included in the negotiations, and allows the House of Commons to override a referendum decision in the event that the referendum violates the Act in any way. The secession would then require an amendment to the Constitution.
The underpinning requirement for clarity in any secession referendum might well prove to be problematic for Wexit, given the likelihood that media attention has exaggerated support for separation. Far from a provincial consensus on leaving Canada, many Albertans simply seek greater political representation in Ottawa. This is in fact the main issue driving Wexit.
Assuming that Wexit got past the Constitutional obstacles, and ignoring a plethora of other practical considerations, there is geography. Alberta is landlocked.
According to a World Bank study entitled “The Cost of Being Landlocked,” being landlocked is a significant economic disadvantage “In the last two decades new emphasis has been given to the economic impact of geography, especially on the cost of being landlocked.” It goes on to say “High prices have hit many countries around the world, but landlocked developing countries bear an extra burden. And they have an equally hard time exporting, with the result that they trade less and grow more slowly than their coastal neighbours. Being landlocked is a major reason why 16 of the world’s 31 landlocked developing countries are among the poorest in the world ...”
Handicapped by geography, the Republic of Alberta would also face the economic implications of global warming, the Paris Accord, and the current federal government plan to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions means reducing fossil fuel consumption. In 2018, the Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction Industry accounted for 26.4 per cent of Alberta’s GDP, about $89.4 billion.
Even a 30 per cent decrease ($26.8 billion) would decimate Alberta’s economy. Health care alone cost Albertans $22 billion last year.
Canada needs Alberta, but Alberta also needs Canada.
Wexit Alberta may not be an immediate threat to Confederation, the separatist movement was alive during the oil-boom of the 1970s, but it is the desperation cry of long-disenfranchised Westerners. We ignore them at our peril.
Ken Grafton is a writer based in scenic Wakefield, Quebec, just north of Ottawa. His background includes global executive level experience in engineering and telecommunications.