Will Canada meet its 2025 electric vehicle sales target?
Provincial government needs to help by offering buyers a rebate
In December 2022, Canada moved to mandate electric vehicle sales starting in 2025. Transport Canada set targets to have 10 per cent of all light-duty cars be electric by 2025. So with only 10 months to go until 2025, how are we doing with that?
Data published in December, 2023 by Statistics Canada show that in the first nine months of 2023, 132,783 new battery electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were registered across the country, making up 10.3 per cent of the new registrations. So we may just meet our 2025 target of 10 per cent.
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault also proposed that onefifth of all passenger cars, SUVs and trucks sold in Canada in 2026 will need to run on electricity under new regulations. So how are we going to double the sale of electric vehicles (EV) by 2026?
According to the most recent data released in November, 2023 by S&P Global Mobility, registrations of battery electric (BEV) and plugin hybrid (PHEV) vehicles surged to 13.3 per cent in Canada in the third quarter of 2023. Not only is this another record, but it’s a 2.7 per cent jump over the second quarter of the zero emission vehicles (ZEV) market share, which was the previous all-time high of 10.5 per cent.
The reason? Because two provinces in Canada are excelling in EV sales. Why? Because along with Yukon and Prince Edward Island, they offer the best provincial EV rebates.
British Columbia continues to lead the country in EV adoption, and for the first time, the ZEV market share in B.C. topped one in four vehicles. According to S&P, 26.4 per cent of all vehicles registered were ZEVs. In terms of volume, this represented 24.1 per cent of all ZEVs registered in Canada.
B.C. currently offers a $4,000 rebate for the purchase or lease of a new battery electric vehicle or extended range EV. Combined with the $5,000 federal rebate, this adds up to $9,000 toward a new EV.
Quebec also reached a new benchmark, with ZEV registrations topping 20 per cent for the first time at 22.8 per cent. It also leads the country in volume, with 40.4 per cent of all ZEV registrations in Canada coming from that province. Quebec also offers Canada’s largest provincial EV rebate — $7,000 for the purchase of a new EV. Combined with the $5,000 federal EV rebate, this adds up to $12,000 toward a new EV.
Yukon and Prince Edward Island both topped Ontario in terms of ZEV market share, hitting marks of 10.4 and 9.3 per cent respectively. Yukon and P.E.I. both offer a $5,000 rebate on the purchase of a new EV — adding up to $10,000 with the $5,000 federal rebate.
Unfortunately, Ontario’s ZEV market share continues to lag behind the national average at just 8.7 per cent. So why isn’t Ontario keeping up with the program? One reason is because Premier Doug Ford’s Conservative government cancelled all EV rebates and incentives in 2018.
Other Conservative provinces that don’t offer any EV rebates are Alberta and Saskatchewan. So why don’t Conservative provinces offer EV rebates? Apparently, they are more invested in the oil industry than the EV industry.
Does this mean they want Canadians to spend their hard-earned money on gas for their cars instead of saving gas money by owning an EV?
The federal Liberal government offers a $5,000 rebate on purchases and leases (of at least 48 months) on new battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVS) that can travel more than 50 kilometres on electricity alone. PHEVs with a lower electric range receive a $2,500 rebate.
The federal rebates will help keep EV purchases somewhat affordable, but we also need provincial rebates to help make them more affordable.
According to Automotive News Canada, the Conservative Party of Canada won’t commit to keeping an EV rebate program if it wins the next election. This indicates to me it will probably cancel all federal EV rebates entirely.
Conservative leaders will probably blame the Trudeau government if EV sales targets aren’t met. However, it’s not up to Trudeau to meet Canada’s 2025-26 EV sales target. It’s up to each individual province to get with the program and offer enticing rebates.
The federal Liberal government has done a great job keeping up with climate change targets rebates and incentives. Unfortunately, Conservative governments don’t traditionally put climate change very high on their agenda. I dread to see everything the current federal government has accomplished be wiped out if a Conservative government is elected in 2025.
One of the main reasons Canadians cite for not buying an EV is because they can’t afford one. If you think the Ford government should offer a provincial rebate for the purchase of a new EV in Ontario, please write to him and ask him to match the federal government’s $5,000 rebate.