Trump is helping Clark, Horgan
There seems to be much shaking in the boots because the big bad Donald has us in his sights now and Justin Trudeau hardly seems like the man able to give President Foghorn Leghorn the middle finger and suggest this matter about the milk and the wood be taken outside and settled in the parking lot. Here in B.C., in the middle of an election few seem to care about yet, Christy Clark and John Horgan are in agreement of making an issue out of something they have little to no control over in hopes of securing votes. Trade is a federal matter.
Trudeau is free to cut whatever softwood lumber deal he likes with Trump, whenever he feels like it, regardless of what Clark, Horgan or anyone else in B.C. has to say about it.
Clark is cheerfully telling reporters (and she told us the same during her visit to The Citizen last Friday) that she is pushing for an increasingly diversified international market for B.C. wood, where it wouldn’t matter if the U.S. put up 20 per cent tariffs because there would be willing buyers elsewhere.
Hopefully, she is also pushing for more Lotto Max winners from this province, too.
She has as much control over that as she does over the global supply and price of lumber. She’s merely stating the way she’d like things to be (the lumber issue, not necessarily the Lotto Max), not what she actually has any kind of ability to make happen. Horgan is no better. He’s pledged to head down to Washington within 30 days of being elected premier to help get the best deal for B.C. Should that happen, the reception he’ll get from the White House decision makers will rival an official visit from the prime minister of Lower Slobovia. Doesn’t matter whether he meets with Ivanka, Jared, Kellyanne Conway or Kid Rock, the utter lack of results will be the same.
Just like Horgan and Clark are trying to benefit in the middle of the election from some Trump bashing, Trudeau and his Parliamentary opponents are positioning themselves to benefit politically from these tariffs.
The federal NDP and Conservatives are both accusing Trudeau of mismanaging the softwood file and putting Canadian jobs in jeopardy.
Meanwhile, Trudeau is quietly setting political expectations low, just as he does so often, before amazing the electorate by easily clearing the bar and then shooting a Mission Accomplished selfie. The more people think Trump is going to beat him with a hardover copy of The Art of The Deal, the more Canadians will be relieved (and presumably grateful) when he signs a new softwood lumber agreement. Even if all the new pact does is reduce the tariff slightly and/or lets the American forest sector keep all the tariff money the U.S. government collects, both features of past agreements, it’ll be trumpeted as a couldhave-been-worse win, with smiles and handshakes, by both Trudeau and Trump.
While the politicians grandstand, the industry CEOs will be busy, slashing operating costs, streamlining production, modernizing facilities, pushing into other markets and cutting new deals, to offset as much of the effect of the tariffs on the bottom line as possible.
They don’t do it for the workers or the communities and certainly not for the politicians. They do it for the shareholders.
There are far fewer sawmills and far fewer forestry workers in B.C. than there was at the start of the last major softwood lumber dispute between Canada and the U.S. nearly 20 years ago.
That’s because the Canfors and West Fras- ers of the world got busy buying up smaller mills on both sides of the border, closing old and inefficient mills and centralizing their operations at massive, high-tech mills that put out huge volumes with a fraction of the staff once required.
West Fraser, for example, got hit with the highest tariff at 24 per cent, which will affect its 15 mills in B.C. and Alberta. It won’t affect, however, the 16 sawmills it owns in the American southeast.
The smaller lumber manufacturers, most based solely in Canada, feel the tariffs much more, making them possible fodder for future acquisition but tariffs are toughest of all on consumers.
American house builders and retail lumber stores will pass on their costs to home buyers and renovators, where they will pay for the Mexican wall or whatever else the Prima Donald has planned with that tariff money. Costs will rise and the consumer will pay.
In his mind, what’s good for business must be good for consumers, even though that’s as ridiculous as saying what’s good for politicians must be good for voters.
The tariffs create winners and losers, just the way the Ginger Wrecking Ball sees the world operating. In this case, consumers and workers lose.
Meanwhile, the winning side also includes some big, business-savvy B.C. lumber producers and more than a few Canadian politicians.
— Managing editor Neil Godbout
While the politicians grandstand, the industry CEOs will be busy, slashing operating costs, streamlining production, modernizing facilities, pushing into other markets and cutting new deals, to offset as much of the effect of the tariffs on the bottom line as possible.