British Columbians feel more in common with Western U.S. than Eastern Canada

In one of his candid conversations with Brian Mulroney, author Peter C. Newman gave the sitting prime minister a piece of advice. Newman urged Mulroney, who was running for a second term in office in 1988, to stop using the words “out here” during campaign stops in Western Canada.

Mulroney’s propensity to start his speeches with “It’s great to be out here in…” Newman noted, made Western Canadians feel alienated. It also suggested that, once candidates left francophone Quebec or centre-of the-universe Ontario, every other Canadian province was essentially the same.

I have had the opportunity to ask British Columbians and Albertans questions for more than a decade. In recent months, we have discussed the unique allure of Cascadia for British Columbians, and reviewed separatist feelings in Alberta.

A lot has happened since we last checked in. British Columbia has lost its place as the most environmentally friendly province in the country – a distinction now enjoyed by Quebec – and Albertans said goodbye to a New Democratic Party government after giving a massive mandate to the United Conservative Party.

Some things have not changed. In the latest Research Co. survey, two thirds of British Columbians (66 per cent) continue to say they have more in common with the people of Seattle and Portland than with those in Toronto or Montreal. Three-in-four (74 per cent) believe they will stay in the

province for the rest of their lives. More than four-in-five (86 per cent) are very proud of British Columbia.

While Albertans have endured jokes about a perceived affection towards the United States for decades, their views on a supposed brotherhood with Americans are nowhere near the Cascadia lovefest that British Columbians espouse. Albertans are evenly divided when asked if they have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians (43 per cent agree and 43 per cent disagree). Men are significantly more likely than women (52 per cent compared with 35 per cent) to feel that the U.S. is “closer” to Alberta than other provinces.

In Alberta, the notion of secession has reached 30 per cent for the first time since I started tracking this question in 2014. The proportion of Albertans who feel they would be “better off” as their own country is higher than what we found in British Columbia this month (17 per cent) and slightly lower than what Quebecers told Research Co. in December 2018 (34 per cent).

Across Alberta, 27 per cent of residents say they consider themselves “Albertans first, and Canadians second.” In British Columbia, only 19 per cent of residents place their province before their country. Quebec, at 48 per cent the last time we checked, is on a completely different league.

When asked about recent governments, the negativity is evident in British Columbia. Twoin-five residents (39 per cent) cannot pick any of the last nine premiers as the best one. The last three reached double digits: John Horgan at 14 per cent, Gordon Campbell at 12 per cent and Christy Clark at 11 per cent.

When British Columbians ponder their worst recent head of government, the level of undecideds falls to 29 per cent. More than a quarter of residents (27 per cent) pick Clark as the worst premier. Campbell is a distant second (11 per cent), followed closely by Horgan (10 per cent).

In Alberta, Ralph Klein wins as “best recent premier” by a large margin (44 per cent), with Rachel Notley finishing second with 17 per cent. This is definitely a situation in which the province’s centre-left voters gravitate towards their only head of government. In any case, conservatives appear to return the favour when asked about the “worst recent premier.” Notley is first with 26 per cent, with Alison Redford a close second at 25 per cent.

More than half of Albertans (51 per cent) picked a woman as the worst recent head of government. There is a gender gap, but it’s not immense, as 47 per cent of women gave their “worst” vote to either Notley (27 per cent) or Redford (20 per cent).

In British Columbia, 30 per cent of women selected Clark on this question, compared with 24 per cent for men.