Danielle Smith and Wildrose ride the wave
If in a week Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith becomes premier of Alberta, many will call it a stunning upset. But in fact it won’t be.
Smith’s ascent has been predictable. And that was even before trouble hit the campaign of Tory Premier Alison Redford, because of various scandals and pratfalls, and before Smith’s perceived victory in last week’s debate.
Historical precedent had Redford at a disadvantage before the writ was dropped. Setting aside the 41-year incumbency of Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives, the modern Alberta Tories are the house that Ralph built. Like Mike Harris in Ontario, Klein placed an indelible personal stamp on the party he led, which was freewheeling, straight-talking, fiscally austere and unerringly populist.
Klein’s successors, first Ed Stelmach and now Redford, have struggled to define themselves in his long shadow. In Redford’s case this dynamic has been compounded by, paradoxically, her gifts.
She is clearly bright, knowledgeable, experienced and ambitious. Her years of national and international work set her apart among Canadian politicians.
The wrinkle: None of that necessarily gets you far in Red Deer. In appearance, tone, attitude and substance, Redford could not be more different from the model imprinted by Klein, a contrast she compounded in her first budget in February, which is larded with new social spending and sprinkled with softfocus notions such as wellness and investing in families and communities that would have sent Klein rushing to the nearest pub.
Redford’s troubles predate her: It was Stelmach who ended the era of fiscal conservatism in 2009, running the province’s first deficit in 16 years. But she unwisely reinforced the Stelmach narrative, namely that the Conservatives have been unfaithful to Klein’s legacy, and become smug, complacent and highfalutin. As a result, Redford’s exemplary international track record hurts, rather than helps her, inasmuch as it sends a message of aloofness from the concerns of ordinary Albertans.
Now contrast this with Smith: She too is a bright go-getter with a polished media presence, and she also has a record of professional achievement. Smith cut her teeth as a columnist and editorial writer for the Calgary Herald, hosted her own weekly current affairs TV show, then moved to a series of conservative think-tanks before joining the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Better small-c conservative creds, in other words, you would be hard-pressed to find. And she has an ear to the ground.
This may be why Smith went to market with a suite of five bedrock, simple policies that appeal to Albertans’ small-c conservatism: Balanced budgets, back to basics in education, shorter medical wait times, unqualified support for the oilpatch and accountability.
Like Harris in 1995 and Harper in 2006, Wildrose put a dampened finger to the wind and caught the wave. Then as now, it is not rocket science though it is, perhaps, an art. The curiosity is that Redford and her team did not see the falling anvil until it was too late.