How U.S. election affects Canada
We may admire Obama’s health care, but not if U.S. recruits our doctors
OTTAWA — Canadians don’t get a say in who’s elected to the White House Tuesday, but the result will have wide-ranging impacts for us.
Here’s a look at how a Mitt Romney presidency or a Barack Obama second term could affect Canadians:
The Military
Canada’s reliance on the U.S. and military for its defence and security is unparalleled. It’s one of the main reasons this country gets away with spending just over one per cent of GDP on the military when the NATO target is two per cent.
The U.S. spends about four per cent of its GDP on defence, but cuts to U.S. military spending are inevitable given the state of the economy and its multi-trillion-dollar deficit.
Romney’s plan will have least impact on Canadian defence, as he wants a minimum of four per cent of U.S. GDP spent on the military.
Obama is potentially more worrying for Canadian military planners. Obama has said he plans to use half the money saved from the U.S. pullout from Iraq and Afghanistan to pay down the debt, and re-invest the other half in infrastructure.
That still represents major dollars, but Canada and other U.S. allies will undoubtedly face pressure to start doing more and increase their defence funding.
Health Care
If Romney scraps Obama’s health care plan, Canadians, though many like public health care as a concept, may want to breathe a sigh of relief.
Obamacare is expected to result in 32 million more Americans having access to health care. The Association of American Medical Colleges has predicted that will result in a shortfall of 63,000 doctors by 2015.
The U.S. already has a history of recruiting Canadian-trained doctors and nurses to help address its existing shortfall and that would likely grow stronger under Obamacare.
The Economy
The economic fates of Canada and the United States are intertwined. How the U.S. goes, so goes Canada.
The massive U.S. debt continues to spiral out of control, unemployment is at eight per cent, and there is no agreement over what to do.
Obama plans to cut military spending and put a greater tax burden on the country’s biggest businesses and wealthiest citizens to ease the pain borne by the middle-class.
Romney emphasizes tax cuts for big business in the hope of encouraging job creation and investment, slashing non-military government spending, and downloading services to states.
If Romney cut corporate taxes, it could affect Canada’s ability to attract foreign investment. His proposed cuts to government funding could mean less work for Canadian companies that have taken advantage of U.S. government contracts.
Obama’s plan to maintain most government spending, and his promise to re-invest half of the billions saved from the pullout of Iraq and Afghanistan into infrastructure, may mean opportunities for Canadian companies.
Energy and the Environment
The Conservative government and Canada’s oil and gas industry are waiting for the election results so the Keystone XL pipeline can get the go-ahead.
Romney says the pipeline, which would carry Alberta crude to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico, is essential for weaning the U.S. off oil from Iran and Venezuela. But most expect Obama to also approve the pipeline, particularly since TransCanada submitted a revised proposal several weeks ago, expected to address environmental concerns.
Obama has promised to continue investing in alternative energy sources, including wind and solar, in the hopes he can make the U.S. a world leader. This could result in less reliance on Canadian resources, which would affect our energy industry and encourage the drive toward China and other parts of Asia.
Romney has come out strongly in favour of securing U.S. energy from oil, gas and coal. But Romney also plans to significantly increase the number of drilling permits for energy companies in the U.S.
That reduces Canada’s energy importance and raises concerns over the threat of oil spills off the West Coast.
Obama was much more modest in his approach to environmental issues during his first term than many expected. Environmentalists are encouraging him to be much more active in his second term when he won’t have to think about re-election.