Victoria’s secrets
Polls see premier trailing, but they erred in Alberta
Can Clark pull off a Redford reverse?
Christy Clark’s description of her relationship with Alison Redford as “frosty” was one of the political understatements of 2012.
Once these two started bickering over the proposed Enbridge pipeline, they got along like a couple of stray cats in a burlap bag.
But there’s still one area where Clark admits unabashed admiration for her Alberta counterpart: Redford proved the pollsters and pundits wrong, and won an election few thought she could win.
“The night before Alison Redford won with a big majority, the polls said she was going to be wiped out,” Clark said. “The night before!”
Now, with a spring election approaching in B.C., Clark hopes her own gloomy “night before” will turn into a glorious “morning after” and an even more shocking upset victory.
Can the pollsters be wrong again? British Columbia’s top political pulse-takers tackled that question at a recent forum.
“Alberta was a wild ride,” pollster Greg Lyle said at the event put on by the B.C. chapter of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. “We showed a 17-point swing in six days.” That big edge was originally in favour of Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Alliance, but Lyle said voters got cold feet about the untested leader and her upstart party.
“As the election went along, the winds of public debate started blowing pretty heavily against Wildrose and Danielle Smith,” said Lyle, owner of Innovative Research.
“By the time we got into the last week, they hit a tipping point. People finally heard one bad thing too many, and they left Wildrose and went back to the Tories.” Why didn’t pollsters catch on? Kyle Braid said it could simply be a case of “crappy polling” and a herd mentality among pollsters.
“It led to good polls weighting or adjusting
“I have been personally involved in 34 elections in North America over the past five years. We have been correct in 33 of them. That’s a .969 batting average.” MARIO CANSECO, VICE-PRESIDENT, ANGUS REID PUBLIC OPINION
their data in some way to reflect a story that had already become about a surging Wildrose,” said Braid, vice-president of Ipsos Public Affairs. “One bad poll can lead to more bad polls.” So can the polls in B.C. — consistently showing Christy Clark badly trailing Adrian Dix and the NDP — be wrong again?
“I have been personally involved in 34 elections in North America over the past five years,” said Mario Canseco, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion.
“We have been correct in 33 of them. That’s a .969 batting average.”
All three pollsters said Clark is in trouble, especially among female voters, where surveys suggest she trails Dix by as much 29 points.
“I have seen women be tougher on women than they are on male politicians,” said Lyle, who worked with former prime minister Kim Campbell and former premier Rita Johnston.
“In part, it’s because they feel a little bit of themselves is in the game. If she does something a little bit wrong, that’s making them all look not so good.”
Clark is counting on B.C.’s relatively strong economy to convince female voters to stick with her and not gamble on the NDP.
“They have strength on the economy,” Braid agrees. “But for women, it’s not translating into their daily lives. They’re looking beyond that to other issues: health care, education, how their kids are doing in school.”
But despite Clark’s predicament, all three pollsters say it’s possible for her to turn things around.
“It’s a long shot for the B.C. Liberals,” Braid said. “But even though Adrian Dix’s numbers keep moving up, I don’t think it’s based on a lot.
“Most British Columbians don’t know Adrian Dix all that well. Until British Columbians get exposed to him in a campaign, they [the NDP] shouldn’t feel all that safe yet.”
Besides, Canseco said, Redford proved in Alberta that it’s always possible to turn the tables.
“Anything can happen in this province,” he said. “Anything.”