Glacial melt might eliminate pastimes
CHANGE: Study forecasts massive thawing by 2100
Blue-bird days on the ski slopes and expeditions to rivers frothing with salmon could be among the quintessential B.C. pastimes that vanish in the next century if the province’s glaciers maintain their melt.
Results of a 3D computer simulation reveal in more detail than ever before the magnitude of glacial thawing due to climate change. The study was published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.
It confirms and goes one step further than previous projections on glacial melt, holding up a magnifying glass to specific geography in Western Canada and spurs scientific theorizing about potential localized impacts.
Researchers anticipate that by 2100, disappearing glaciers may alter how much water is delivered to salmon-spawning beds in the B.C. Interior, and similarly dry up corporate visions of future ski resorts, said study coauthor Garry Clarke.
A near total loss of glacial ice is expected to be concentrated in the Rocky Mountains, said Clarke, professor emeritus with the University of B.C.
“People driving into Banff or Jasper parks will be hard-pressed to see glaciers in the landscape by the time this is played out,” he said.
Similar disappearance rates are expected in B.C.’s southeastern Columbia Mountains. But the southern coast mountains may fare better than previously expected, mostly sparing the visually stunning Mt. Garibaldi, north of Squamish.
Ice caps in B.C.’s northwest, close to the Alaska and Yukon borders, should also survive.
Researchers spent nearly a decade coding and embedding influential factors into the simulation, amounting to high-resolution representations of the glacial degradation in B.C. and Alberta over the years, said Clarke.
While the entire region currently sustains 3,000 cubic kilometres of ice, that’s projected to degrade between 60 to 80 per cent using the simulation, which charts four possible courses based on standard future climatechange scenarios.
The study projects the maximum rate of ice-volume retreat to occur between 2020 and 2040.
Earlier forecasts using less sophisticated calculus predicted the glacial mass loss would be lower.
“This is not a trivial amount,” Clarke said. “This is in the world-league in terms of how many glaciers we have in our mountains and what the losses will be.”