‘ACE’ IN THE HOLE
Estrada enjoying renaissance season
BALTIMORE — As trades go in the Alex Anthopoulos era, it was a few rolls of newsprint south of the arrival of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki or David Price.
Nov. 1, 2014: The Blue Jays trade Adam Lind to the Milwaukee Brewers for Marco Estrada.
The American League East axis did not tilt that day.
Yet, the Blue Jays rotation, the one with the magic number of one following a Yankees loss Tuesday before etched-in-stone talk about a post-season rotation begins, has.
Now front-runners to grab starts if the Jays begin play Oct. 8 are David Price, Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey and Estrada, who didn’t join the Jays rotation until May 5.
It would not be a surprise if neither Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.76 ERA in 30 starts) nor Drew Hutchison (13-4, 5.33 in 27 starts) get post-season starts.
A year ago, Russell Martin was with the Pittsburgh Pirates facing Estrada, then of the Brewers.
“We didn’t see him that much,” Martin said, “but he’s locked in right now, very polished and pitching with confidence. “He’s quietly become an ace.” Ace Estrada. That was a term Brewers fans didn’t use as Estrada led the National League in home runs allowed last season: 29 in 18 starts (150⅔ innings).
Estrada allowed his 22nd homer this season when Baltimore’s Ryan Flaherty hit a three-run homer to left in the second Monday.
That was all Estrada allowed during his 7⅓ innings (making it a careerhigh 174⅓). The Jays beat the Orioles 4-3, scoring three runs in their final two innings.
Even on a wet night in Maryland, the most common question visiting scouts ask is: “How is Estrada doing it?”
(No. 2 is: “When will Tulowitzki be back?”)
1 How is Estrada doing it? Elevating the ball more Pitching coach Pete Walker and Anthopoulos spoke with the right-hander in mid-May at the Rogers Centre after he joined the rotation.
They suggested he pitch up in the zone, more like Tyler Clippard, now of the New York Mets, or Chris Tillman of the Orioles.
“It’s an important part of his game,” Walker said. “He did it before, but not often enough.”
Throwing his fastball up and on the same plane as his breaking balls results in swings and misses.
The fact his fastball runs straight means it plays better up in the zone, even though most pitching coaches say pitch down. Their rationale was that he will still give up home runs, but he should be more effective.
2 Different arsenal A year ago, 56.6 per cent of Estrada’s pitches were fastballs, this year the number is 53 per cent, according to Fangraphs.
He’s roughly the same on changeups with 30 per cent last year to 28.2 per cent this season. He’s gone from throwing 13.5 per cent curve balls to 10.9 per cent. And eight per cent of his pitches are cutters, which he did not throw last season.
Walker says the Fangraphs’ number on the cutters is low.
From his numbers, he guesses the number is roughly 11 per cent.
3 Deception “He does an excellent job at hiding the ball; he averages 89-90 mph and look at his numbers,” one scout said.
Estrada is 13-8 with a 3.15 ERA, but more impressive than that, he has limited opposing hitters to a .206 average, lowest in the AL.
4 Health “I had a few issues last year,” Estrada said. “I understand basically what’s happening. For sure it’s my best year, but I had a good year in 2012; I threw harder, located better and had a lot more strikeouts.”
That year, he was 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA. He appeared in 29 games, making 23 starts and striking out 143 in 138⅓ innings.
Who knows what would have happened had Estrada not rolled his ankle in Dunedin and not lost out on the fifth starter’s job to Aaron Sanchez?
“This team gave me an opportunity to start, I ran with it,” said Estrada, who is scheduled for one more regular season start. Then he’ll think about post-season assignments.
And then what’s next for the free agent? “I love this team,” Estrada said. “It’s a great offence to pitch in front of, an excellent offence, and it’s going to be around a long time. I haven’t sat around and discussed it yet with my wife. “But I love this team.” Even on a soggy night in Baltimore, Estrada and a whole bunch of Canadians felt the same way.