Overtime the key
Coach Willie Desjardins has finally settled on speed for overtime contests
Oddsmakers give the Canucks about a 33-per-cent chance of making the playoffs. What will help their chances is their recent improvement in overtime.
Here’s the deal with NHL playoff odds. The likelihood of a club on the outside advancing to the postseason — all seven Canadian franchises were in that predicament Sunday — is based on a formula that considers current standing, strength of division and conference, remaining schedule and significant injuries.
What those playing with projection models and analysis can’t consider is what a coach is thinking and what strategies will be in play after the AllStar Game break.
Multiple calculations by various oddsmakers give the Vancouver Canucks a 33.3-per-cent chance of making the playoffs.
What they can’t compute is how Willie Desjardins is going to ice a lineup once Brandon Sutter and Henrik Sedin return from injury and how the Canucks will approach overtime from this point forward. Think about it. As they are currently constructed, the Canucks are good enough to be in one-goal games — hello, Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom — but not good enough to win most of them, even the ones they stretch to overtime or shootout. They’re 12-19 in those one-goal results.
However, there is reason for optimism, because the Canucks have finally figured out how to approach the 3-on-3 overtime.
The five-minute segment has been a five-alarm migraine for management because the initial plan to give Henrik and Daniel Sedin ample opportunity to possess the puck and drive the opposition crazy with a cycle game seemed prudent.
But when the Canucks dropped their first seven overtime games and didn’t win one until Boxing Day against the Edmonton Oilers — they were more concerned with giving up chances rather than producing them — the new objective for the overtime odyssey became obvious: Play with speed. Play the kids.
Bo Horvat’s one-time, 36-foot slapper for the overtime winner in Carolina on Jan. 15 came on the club’s fourth shot in the extra session.
Daniel Sedin, Emerson Etem and Chris Tanev had the others.
And in a 3-2 overtime setback at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, Ben Hutton had a chance to end it before J.T. Miller scored for the New York Rangers. With Henrik Sedin sidelined, the overtime pairings for forwards were Radim Vrbata-Horvat, Jannik Hansen-Daniel Sedin, Sven Baertschi-Jared McCann and Linden Vey-Etem.
It’s not that the Sedins shouldn’t factor into overtime strategy. It’s just that there should be a broader scope and a willingness to deploy speed.
Daniel netted the 3-2 overtime power play winner on Jan. 11 against Florida and you always want to be able to include those wily veterans in overtime.
But for too long, it was getting comical. After a 2-1 overtime loss in Los Angeles on Dec. 1, in which they failed to generate a shot, the Sedins were perplexed. Their post-game summation was stunning.
“Maybe we’ve got to get it to a shootout and go from there and maybe win one and build off that,” Henrik said. “We’re pressing a bit and when you do that in the 3-on-3, it’s really easy to see it go the other way. You sit back and then maybe take a shot.” That was a lot of maybes. Daniel was no different. “It seems like with every (OT) loss, we have it (puck) and then we give it away and they score,” the winger said.
At the time, Desjardins was adamant that better execution and confidence would turn the overtime tide. But it wasn’t until he introduced a speed element and took a chance on the kids that fortunes started to change.
There’s more positives to gain from a playoff push than merely pleasing the owner, too.
Horvat had four points and 10 shots in six playoff games last spring, and the rookie grew immensely from the pressure-packed atmosphere. Imagine what it would do for the development of Jake Virtanen, McCann, Hutton and Baertschi.
To get there the Canucks have to beat the odds and not beat themselves with fire drills on the back end, a power play that’s ranked 24th and the league’s worst faceoff percentage. Again, there is hope. Desjardins is now less likely to play the veteran loyalty card and the schedule should work in their favour.
You’d like to think the Canucks can build on a mediocre 9-8-4 home record (they are 11-10-7 on the road). They should be suiting up more rested now that they have just 13 games left away from Rogers Arena, which should translate to better play on the stretch drive.
And with eight home dates against clubs they were chasing for a wild-card berth as of Sunday, they shouldn’t lack incentive.
The Canucks had a seven-game road trip in early November (1-4-2), a four-gamer a week later (1-1-2) and a six-gamer in mid-December (2-3-1) before a six-gamer in midJanuary (3-2-1).
Miller missed eight games with a groin strain and didn’t return until Jan. 14 in Washington, while Markstrom was magnificent in relief. The Canucks have found ways to win games they should have lost and ways to lose games they should have won, such as blowing a 3-1 thirdperiod lead Saturday in Pittsburgh.
If rest and recovery are going to mean something the rest of the way and even next season, then you can understand why the Canucks hierarchy lobbied so hard in New York last week to get a better road schedule for 2016-17.
“Things we weren’t happy with included the seven-game trip, sixgame trip, and the spacing of our trips wasn’t good,” said Trevor Linden, president of hockey operations. “The only six-game trip we’ll have next year is when we come to New York ... and we’re trying to do one trip a month, unlike this past year.
“We had seven road games in November, went home for two and were gone for four, which was really hard.”
OF NOTE: Brandon Sutter, sidelined since Dec. 1 after sports hernia surgery, is targeting Tuesday’s game against Nashville for his return.