Jays found heart in Emerald City
FEARLESS FORECASTS: While the boys in blue prepare for ALCS, the puck is set to drop on new NHL season
In honour of the U.S. presidential debate, here’s something else that makes you glad when it’s over, the musings and meditations on the world of sports:
On Sept. 19, the Toronto Blue Jays limped into Seattle barely hanging onto a wild-card playoff spot and sporting the worst record in MLB for September.
Since that three-game series they’ve gone 12-5, including 4-0 in the post-season, and now wait for the beginning of the American League Championship Series on Friday.
Look, sometimes you see what you want to see and the storyline from that series in Seattle is too juicy to ignore. But something seemed to transform the Jays in those three days. Something seemed to change the energy of a team that looked defeated and lifeless.
The concept of momentum is a tricky one in sports and it’s hard to know why it changes. But those insane crowds in Seattle did something for the Jays. Obviously, this is an immensely talented ball club, but it needed something to restore its confidence in late September.
It got that something in the Emerald City and the Jays have been riding it ever since.
Then again, John Gibbons might have something to do with the Jays’ surge.
Gibby is playing to rave reviews in the post-season and can’t seem to make a wrong decision. But is he really doing anything different than he did in the regular season?
As they say in horse racing, the Blue Jays manager has a light hold on the reins. He knows the strengths of his players. He trusts them implicitly and doesn’t over-think any problems a slump or a mini-losing streak might present.
Maybe Gibbons doesn’t register as a master strategist, but his way is consistent with the way of any number of great managers/coaches. He knows it’s about the players, not him, and because of that, his guys will go through a wall for him.
With Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins taking over the Jays’ front office, there was some question whether this was still Gibby’s team. That question has since been put to rest.
Our fearless predictions for the 2016-17 NHL season.
Stanley Cup: Tampa Bay over Chicago. The Bolts have been close for a couple of seasons. This time they get it right. Also love Nashville in the West, but it’s hard to bet against Toews and Kane.
Hart: It seems pointless to have this conversation with a black cloud hanging over Sidney Crosby but, assuming he recovers from his concussion, this trophy is still El Sid’s to lose. Connor McDavid is starting to close the gap, but he’s not in Crosby’s class yet.
Art Ross: McDavid. Just don’t see Kane with another 100-point season.
Norris: Victor Hedman. Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns will put up crazy numbers, but the discussion over the best two-way defenceman in the game comes down to Hedman and Drew Doughty. The league is trending younger. This is Hedman’s time.
Calder: Not Auston Matthews. With Mitch Marner and William Nylander in the mix, I’m not sure Matthews will be the best rookie on the Leafs. Take Jimmy Vesey, who’s 23 and will play a feature role on the Rangers. And watch out for the Coyotes’ Dylan Strome.
■ As for the NHL’s burning questions this season, three pop to mind:
1. Does a healthy Carey Price transform the Canadiens?
2. Does P.K. Subban transform the Predators?
3. Which Canadian-based team makes the playoffs this season because it’s not possible all seven will miss again. Is it?
■ And finally, here’s the one bright spot for the Vancouver Canucks as they head into the new season: They won’t be overburdened by expectations.
By now, the Canucks’ congregation is aware their team is the consensus choice to finish last in the NHL. In a league that still has the Leafs, that would be quite an accomplishment.
But is it a realistic assessment of the Canucks?
We’ll know soon enough. In the meantime, let’s turn the argument on its head and try to determine how close, or how far, the Canucks are from respectability.
Last year, coach Willie Desjardins’ team scored 191 goals and allowed 243 on their way to a 75-point campaign. As it happens, the last three playoff teams in the West have averaged 225 goals for and 207 goals against over the last three seasons.
For the Canucks, then, the solution is simple enough. They have to find a way to score about 35 more goals while cutting their goals against by a similar margin. That, at least, is the simple part. Getting there is a little more complicated.
Finding 35 more goals will be a challenge, but it’s not impossible. Last year, the Canucks’ scoring fell off a cliff after the Sedins and Jannik Hansen. This year, it’s reasonable to expect Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi, Hansen and Brandon Sutter to average 18 goals each. That’s 72, or 14 more than the quartet scored last season. Loui Eriksson should be good for more than Hansen’s 22 playing with the twins. Markus Granlund had two goals last season and is pencilled in for regular duty this season.
The defence, and this is hard to believe, also had 17 goals as a unit last season. Surely this group — Alex Edler, Ben Hutton, maybe Philip Larsen — can find 30 goals among them.
The larger problem will be cutting down the goals against. The Canucks should have NHL-calibre goaltending and the blue-line should be improved, but will that be enough?
Well, the unfortunate reality is the Canucks could be better across the board and they still won’t be competitive in the West.
But this doomsday scenario? Sorry, don’t see it.