Pipeline approval could define the B.C. election
Premier Christy Clark is ready to go all-in on the Kinder Morgan oil pipeline, revealing Wednesday she’s close to backing the controversial project despite the risky politics surrounding it.
“Very, very close,” is how Clark described the current status of her famous five conditions for supporting the Alberta-to-Burnaby pipeline that would put more than 400 oil tankers a year — up from the current 60 — into the waters of Burrard Inlet.
It’s the most positive pipeline signal yet from Clark, who earlier seemed to be stalling on whether B.C. would endorse the project or not.
It looked for a while like Clark might try to stay on the fence right through May’s provincial election campaign rather than pick sides on an issue that divides voters in many crucial Lower Mainland ridings.
But Clark said major progress has been made on the province’s demands and she should be ready to say yes to the pipeline well before the election. Given the content and tone of what she said Wednesday, it would now be a surprise if her government did not formally back the project.
This is a good thing, whether you support the pipeline or not. Certainty and clarity are always better than waffling and wavering from politicians who love to talk in ambiguous weasel words.
Clark’s move now sets up a key election showdown between herself and NDP Leader John Horgan, who opposes the pipeline primarily because of the threat of a devastating oil spill.
Could this be a good issue for Horgan and the NDP in the election? Possibly, since some polls suggest most voters oppose the pipeline.
About half of Metro Vancouver residents (49 per cent) oppose the pipeline, while 33 per cent support it and the rest are not sure, according to an Insights West poll. Those numbers could get juicier for the NDP if public opposition ramps up as voters learn more about the project.
The NDP’s dream: Anti-pipeline protests are big and boisterous, opposition rises and the New Democrats capture Liberal-held swing seats like Burnaby North, Delta North, Vancouver-Fraserview and Surrey-Fleetwood.
But Clark’s Liberals are shrewd strategists. They know Clark’s projobs, pro-development message is a potent weapon against the NDP. They will relentlessly paint the New Democrats as the anti-job “forces of no.”
The Liberals may calculate that silent support for the pipeline is underestimated by pollsters.
But the strongest card in Clark’s hand may be one she hasn’t played yet: Looming announcements on the cash and jobs that will flow to B.C. as a result of her five conditions for supporting the pipeline.
The federal government will spend millions and create jobs to strengthen coastal oil-spill protection. The government of Alberta may throw money and quid pro quo hydro-electricity deals at B.C., while Kinder Morgan could put millions of dollars on the table.
If Clark is able to deliver significant benefits to B.C. for supporting the pipeline, it could put Horgan in a difficult spot, something the NDP leader seemed to realize on Wednesday.
“It (the pipeline) will be an election issue, but there are many, many other issues,” he said.
The May election is coming at a perfect time for voters to have their own say. Though it’s unclear any provincial government could legally stop the pipeline, voters will get a chance to send a powerful and compelling message.
Hopefully Clark is good to her word and she says exactly what her government’s position is well before that election, so the people get a clear, unambiguous choice.