Time to slow down the wild ride

As they did Saturday against Montreal, Canucks need to play a style designed to keep games close

Yes, the following premise sounds a little batty: The Canucks may have lost five straight, but the roof isn’t caving in.

There are reasons to think the hot start the team put together wasn’t a mirage and they still have a (surprising) outside chance at the playoffs.

In many ways, Saturday’s 3-2 loss to Montreal was the perfect tale of how this season is going to be. Though they lost their way in recent games, Saturday they got back to playing a style designed to keep games close.

They’ve been looking to take shots only from good scoring areas — which means fewer point shots and shots off the wing — while looking to make their zone hard to enter with control and thus reducing opposing teams’ shots off the rush.

And they hope they’ll get a bounce or two their way.

On Saturday, they struggled to get good shots off early, while Montreal had lots of controlled possession entering the Canucks’ end.

But midway through the game, the Canucks found their way. When Michael Del Zotto scored on an evenstrength rush and Elias Pettersson added a goal on a third-period power play for a late lead, you thought, “OK, they’ve had some luck and they’re back playing the style that brought them success.”

Then the puck bounced into the net off Andrew Shaw’s foot, tying the game, and Jonathan Drouin fired a shot through traffic and over Jacob Markstrom’s shoulder for the win.

“That’s the NHL; you play well, you’re going to lose some games when you play well,” Canucks head coach Travis Green said after Saturday’s loss.

It was the fifth straight game the Canucks found themselves looking at a negative result.

But the players and coaches remain upbeat and it’s because the diagnoses for their struggles are pretty clear.

For starters, there are the half-dozen players on the shelf with injuries. Alex Edler is a big part of the defence corps, while the absences of Brandon Sutter, Sven Baertschi and Brock Boeser have knock-on effects throughout the lineup. There are also straightforward tactical fixes needed.

On the injury front, Boeser’s adductor problem is still keeping him off the ice; Baertschi, out with a concussion, was spotted in the hallways of Rogers Arena after Saturday’s game, suggesting he may soon embark on the path to return to the ice, but the most optimistic timeline puts him a week away.

As for the team’s tactics,

until the swoon over the last week the Canucks had been steadily improving in two statistical measures, both of which have direct connection to their style of play: they’d been improving in the percentage of overall shots taken in a game as well as the quality of those shots.

“It comes down to being able to defend,” Ben Hutton said after Saturday’s game. “Get back to the way we’ve been playing. We let a few games slip.”

One of the key points of focus for the Canucks this season has been disrupting other teams’ breakouts and play through the neutral zone.

“We want to get tight gaps,” Hutton said.

This also requires work in the offensive zone from the forwards, limiting breakout opportunities for opposing defencemen.

“It’s something we talked about,” Bo Horvat said. “Play direct, not making it a track meet out there.”

Through the road game in Buffalo, this strategy had reflected itself in the Canucks having pulled themselves to be just about even with their opponents in the expected goals metric, which measures the quality of shots teams are taking. Shots off the rush, for instance, have been found to be more dangerous than shots taken in the same spots but created from zone play.

The Canucks are currently taking about 47 per cent of the shots in any given game. As a general rule, teams with that rate of shooting don’t find a lot of long-term success, but there are two teams worth looking at as comparisons, providing one final lesson about the importance of goaltending.

First, the 2014-15 Calgary Flames. Yes, the squad that knocked out the last Canucks team to make the playoffs. As J.D. Burke pointed out on the Rink Wide show on TSN 1040 Saturday, those Flames got outstanding goaltending from Jonas Hiller, overcoming their struggles in the shot battle.

Second, there’s this season’s Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are led by one of the league’s best lines, but they’re still chasing the play for most of the night. Even so, the Avalanche is getting solid goaltending.

Anders Nilsson was off to a promising start before breaking his hand two weeks ago. Jacob Markstrom put in a solid performance Saturday.

So three things to watch for over the coming weeks: Health, tactics, goaltending.

Goalie Richard Bachman, defenceman Troy Stecher and the rest of the Canucks have let a “few games slip” of late, including a 6-2 loss to the Wild Thursday, due to gaps in their defence. But Vancouver was better against Montreal on Saturday, even in a 3-2 loss.