DAN’S PICK
Postmedia’s Dan Barnes makes his pick for the Grey Cup
The Stampeders swept the two-game series between the Grey Cup combatants, but the home-and-home hostilities were staged in weeks three and five of the 21-week Canadian Football League regular season campaign.
That’s practically ancient history, and neither team is the same entity it was when the Stamps won 24-14 in Calgary and 27-3 in Ottawa.
For instance, the Stampeders were unbeaten through their first seven games, then stumbled through the next 11 on a purely pedestrian 6-5 run, after suffering a serious skein of injuries at the receiver position. The Redblacks went 2-2 out of the gate, then 9-5 the rest of the way, but even that’s a tad misleading, because they never got on a real tear until the final four games of the year, finishing at 3-1.
The Stamps, by contrast were 1-3 in their final four. … So you have to look past the slight discrepancy in overall records and that season series to how they are playing and how they match up today. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris lit up the Hamilton Ticats’ defence with six TD passes in the East Final.
Bo Levi Mitchell threw half that many in Calgary’s win over Winnipeg in the West final.
The edge on defence obviously goes to Calgary, as they were the best defensive unit in the CFL all season long.
Special teams appear to be a saw-off as punters Richie Leone and Rob Maver are evenly matched and kickers Lewis Ward and Rene Paredes own the two longest streaks for consecutive field goals in CFL history. If Terry Williams returns to the Calgary roster, he bolsters the return game.
Ottawa has a gem of a return man in Diontae Spencer, who also hauls in Harris TD passes fairly frequently.
As with all football games, if one team wins the turnover battle by a significant margin, call it 3-0 or 4-1 if you like, their chances of victory increase exponentially.
The Stamps owned the best turnover ratio in the league at plus-13, but the Redblacks were right behind at plus-nine over 18 games, so it looks like a wash. However, Calgary converted 49 turnovers into 140 points, while the Redblacks were way less opportunistic, generating just 78 points from 41 turnovers. Neither team will enjoy home field advantage, but an Edmonton crowd might prove more of a bother for the Stampeder offence than it would the Redblacks. No matter how you slice it, this should be a shootout.
PICK: Ottawa by seven