LINE REPORT
Did the bookies botch the pointspread for this year’s Grey Cup? You bet your bankroll they did.
First, let us dispel a myth. When it comes to football, whether it be CFL, NFL or NCAA, the line does not originate in Las Vegas. Those days are gone.
While there is an irony in it due to legalities, the line now stems from savvy offshore sportsbooks as they are the ones taking the biggest bets these days and they want to at least have a say in where their money will be at risk.
Typically, there are one or two prominent offshore shops that release the first numbers. Having trust in those numbers, all other sportsbooks worldwide blindly follow the first release. Some will make minor adjustments or include their own opinion by way of a small alteration to the line but as a rule, the pointspreads will not vary by much.
Another reason that the differences will be minor is that if a sportsbook alters a line by too much, they will only get one way action on the game. In other words, if Team A is a fourpoint favourite in all the books but Sportsbook XYZ believes the line is too low and lists Team A as a six-point favourite, it will only get action on Team B (the underdog) because no one will spot six points when they can spot four points.
Conversely, anyone with any common sense (or who passed Grade 2 math) will be taking the six points rather than taking four points offered elsewhere. Books do not want that kind of exposure.
So now, what happened with this year’s Grey Cup opening line? One of the responsibilities that accompanies this desk is setting CFL betting lines.
It has been a duty for a number of years. Those numbers are provided to a specific offshore book and they in turn publish the opening line. Having faith in those numbers, others follow. However, on Sunday night, a rogue sportsbook posted first and sent out Calgary as a 6½-point favourite with an over/under total of 55½ for Sunday’s final.
Our opening lines had Calgary as a three-point fave with a total of 52.
In the sports betting world, the difference in both of those numbers are gargantuan, particularly on the pointspread. Keep in mind that the objective of the pointspread and the over/ under is to draw equal action on both sides of the number. It is not an opinion on the game.
While our numbers didn’t get posted at the same time as the others went public, it was clear to bettors that both pointspread and total were too high and money immediately came in on underdog Ottawa as well as with a barrage of under bets on the lofty total.
Combined with our openers being posted and the onesided action received, the sportsbooks have since moved the line down to Calgary -4 with a total of 53. Don’t be surprised to see the pointspread drop lower and don’t be surprised to see the books have a bit more patience next time they are awaiting CFL numbers.