It’s all on the line in Nanaimo byelection
It’s a byelection where the stakes could hardly be higher and the campaigning began well before the official start date.
Jan. 30 is the day Nanaimo voters will go to the polls to elect a new MLA to replace Leonard Krog, Elections B.C. announced Wednesday.
But even though the voting date is now official, the three main candidates in the byelection have already been campaigning for weeks.
“This is the most important byelection in B.C. history,” said NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson, in a comment that only sounds like an over-statement. To understand why, do the math in the closely divided legislature.
The current standings are: 42 seats for the Liberals, 40 for the NDP and three for the Greens. There is one independent (Speaker Darryl Plecas) and one vacancy (Nanaimo).
That gives the governing NDP-Green alliance a oneseat edge — 43-42 — over the opposition Liberals. So if the Liberals win Nanaimo, it would deadlock the legislature at 43-43 and likely force an early election.
For the nervous New Democrats, this shouldn’t be a problem. Nanaimo is considered safe NDP turf.
Krog, who resigned to make a successful run for mayor, easily won the seat for the NDP in 2017, taking 46.5 per cent of the vote and beating his Liberal opponent by more than 3,800 votes. Krog personally endorsed Malcolmson as the NDP candidate, and she looks like a perfect choice to keep the seat for their party. A former NDP MP, Malcolmson handily won the federal Nanaimo-Ladysmith seat in 2015.
But even though the seat looks safe for the NDP, I say they’re nervous for several reasons.
Governing parties historically do lousy in B.C. byelections. Since 1981, the government’s record in byelections is a woeful 2-22. Those two government victories were both won by Christy Clark. So if Malcolmson is to pull this off, she must become the first candidate from a governing party, who is NOT the premier, to win a provincial byelection in 38 years.
To buck that historical trend, Malcolmson must also defeat a strong Liberal candidate in Tony Harris. Harris is the son of the late Tom Harris, a popular local businessman who sold cars and cellphones in town. He became famous for his goofy commercials, and everybody in Nanaimo can hum his car-dealership jingle.
There are also some wild cards. The Greens are running candidate Michele Ney, the daughter of former Nanaimo mayor Frank Ney. Ney was one of the most popular mayors in Nanaimo history. There’s even a statue of him downtown. Now his daughter could make some more history, even if it’s in a spoiler role.
Here’s another X factor: The fringe B.C. Conservative Party is also planning to run a candidate. If the Tories take even five per cent of the vote, it could be a factor as the three front-runners fight for every vote.
This is one to watch. The outcome could make — or break — the NDP-Green grip on power.