Nanaimo byelection first test for NDP government in 2019
No one anxious to go to the polls, but here’s how it could all unfold
The next general election in B.C. is scheduled for Oct. 16, 2021, and Premier John Horgan is hoping to celebrate a second term in power on that date.
But there is a chance that B.C. voters will head to the polls much sooner than that. In fact, there are several chances.
Here are five ways British Columbia could be plunged into a snap election in 2019:
1 NDP LOSES NANAIMO BYELECTION
On Jan. 30, voters in Nanaimo will not just elect a new MLA to replace Leonard Krog, who resigned after a successful run for mayor.
They will also decide the fate of the Horgan government and whether the entire province heads back to the polls for a provincial election.
That’s because if the Liberals pull off an upset and steal the seat from the NDP, it would deadlock the B.C. legislature in a tie, likely forcing an early election.
It probably wouldn’t happen immediately, though, because the timing of the election carries significant financial implications.
Consider pension eligibility for MLAs. An MLA only becomes eligible for a pension after six years in office. For MLAs first elected in 2013, it means their pensions kick in this June.
You can bet Horgan — and Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson — will want to delay any election call until their own MLAs qualify for those pension bucks.
Then there’s B.C.’s new system of financing political parties with taxpayers’ money.
Corporate and union donations to political parties are now banned. Instead, parties receive money from individual donations and from taxpayers based on the number of votes they got in the 2017 election.
The disbursement of taxpayers’ money happens twice a year. The next pay day for political parties is July 1, when the NDP and Liberals will each scoop up around $900,000.
In politics, money talks. An election would likely be delayed until MLAs and political parties get paid.
2 SPEAKER PACKS IT IN
Darryl Plecas, the controversial speaker of the legislature, delivered the B.C. political quote of 2018.
“If the outcome of those audits did not outrage the public, did not outrage taxpayers, did not make them throw up, I will resign as speaker,” Plecas said.
He was referring to the investigation of possible financial irregularities that led to the shocking suspension of the legislature’s clerk and sergeant-at-arms in November.
If Plecas resigns, he could sit as an Independent in the house, forcing the NDP to appoint one of their own MLAs as the new speaker, reducing the NDP vote count in the legislature.
With the standings so close in the house, a non-confidence vote could trigger an election.
Another remote possibility is that Plecas is recalled by angry voters in his Abbotsford riding.
Either scenario threatens Horgan’s hold on power.
3 DEATH, ILLNESS, RESIGNATION, DEFECTION
In politics, just like in real life, stuff happens.
With the standings in the legislature so close — the governing NDP-Green alliance holds just a one-seat edge over the Liberals — every MLA’s vote is crucial.
There have already been several health scares among MLAs. Lisa Beare and Rick Glumac were briefly sidelined for the NDP, while Michelle Stilwell and Dan Davies took some recovery time for the Liberals.
Any missed day of work by an NDP MLA could pose a problem for the government.
Then there is the unlikely possibility of an MLA switching parties. Or resigning over a scandal. Or quitting to take another job, like running for federal office in the fall.
4 WEAVER GOES ROGUE
Andrew Weaver and his two fellow Green party MLAs hold the balance of power in the minority legislature and have promised to prop up Horgan’s NDP government.
But what if they change their minds and decide to bring the government down?
Weaver has huffed and puffed before, but has never followed through on threats to blow the NDP’s house down.
One thing holding Weaver back was his hope to get a proportional representation voting system, which would dramatically increase the number of Green MLAs.
But now that pro-rep has been soundly defeated in the recent referendum, maybe Weaver will decide to end his bromance with Horgan.
Probably not, though. Weaver may never get this close to power again and probably won’t throw it away. But you never know.
5 HORGAN ROLLS DICE
Every premier has the right to ask the lieutenant-governor to call an election at any time even though we have scheduled election dates in B.C.
Horgan might decide the time is right to go early, especially if the polls look encouraging, the budget remains balanced and the economy is steady.
It’s another long shot, especially when the New Democrats are short on campaign cash. But the Liberals are in the same boat, which is why they are desperate for all that taxpayer loot.
But the best chance for a 2019 election in B.C. rests with the good people of Nanaimo. Politicians in every party will be holding their collective breath on Jan. 30.