Patriots washed up? Stats say otherwise
Chargers might still zap them, but Brady and his New England squad as formidable as ever
You’ve heard the criticisms all season, especially in recent weeks, about Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offence.
That they’ve taken huge steps backward this year and are mere ghosts of their former juggernaut selves — collectively and individually.
That Brady is now playing like the 41-year-old he is. Arm, shot. Feet, jittery.
That Gronk is more beat up than Fred Dorfman’s Lincoln after its Animal House road trip.
That Brady’s wide receiver corps is a combination of too young, too old, too slow and too can’t-make-big-plays-anymore.
So how in the world on Sunday, in the second of two weekend AFC divisional playoff games, can such a diminished Patriots offence possibly keep up with better-thanever quarterback Philip Rivers and his thunderous, doubly dangerous Los Angeles Chargers attack?
OK, the above depictions of Patriots criticisms are exaggerations. Yet that’s pretty much been the general narrative ahead of kickoff (10:05 a.m. PST, CTV via CBS).
One problem. The numbers don’t back up the critics up.
Believe it or not, the 2018 Patriots offence is more prolific than that of the Chargers. Furthermore, it compares quite favourably to New England predecessors over the past 10 years.
First, let’s compare this season’s Brady bunch against Rivers’ Chargers.
Points scored per game? New England, 27.3, to rank fourth in the NFL. Los Angeles, 26.8, sixth in the NFL.
Total yards per game? New England, 393, fifth. Los Angeles, 373, 11th.
Rush yards per game? New England, 127, fifth. Los Angeles, 117, 15th.
Pass yards per game? New England, 266, eighth. Los Angeles, 256, 10th.
Similarly, the Chargers defence is viewed as much more talented and just plain better than the Patriots’ stop troops. But points allowed per game? New England, 20.3, seventh. Los Angeles, 20.6, eighth.
When you hear experts say that Vegas always knows better, well, guess which team is a four-point favourite? The Patriots.
As you’d expect, New England players sure won’t confirm for you that there’s anything wrong with their attack this year. However close or far it might be from being a juggernaut, as player after player said this week, it’s all about execution. It’s not about what you can do or have done. It’s about what you do in the playoff game.
They would know.
What’s more, at his Friday news conference, Brady attempted to dispel the notion that any team can win a playoff game with prolific offence alone.
“If you don’t play great, really, in all three phases — any time you play good teams, you can’t expect one phase of your team to carry you. It’s got to be a great complementary game,” Brady said. “We’re playing against a team that’s played as well as any team all season. We want to go out and play well as an offence. Our defence has to play well. We have to play well in the kicking game.
“There’s obviously more emotion and energy. There’s more attention and these are big games. But you play the game to be in these moments and have these opportunities and to give your team a chance to advance. So hopefully, we go out and play our best game of the year.”
Besides, to reiterate, this Patriots offence isn’t exactly a poor sister in comparison to other teams during the Pats’ NFL-record string of 10 consecutive division titles and playoff berths.
Out of four traditional bellwether offensive barometers — points scored, total offence, pass offence and rush offence — the only one that consistently lags behind the club’s lofty standard this decade is points scored: 27.3 per game. The Pats haven’t had an average that low since 2009 (26.7). But it’s not only close to that of the previous five seasons (27.8, 29.3, 29.1, 27.6 and 28.6), this year’s average ranked fourth in the league, behind only Kansas City, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans.
As for total offence, the 393 average is better than that of the 2010, ’13, ’14, ’15 and ’16 Patriots.
Passing yards? Yeah, their average is down a bit, to 266 per game. But that’s higher than the 2010, ’13 and ’14 Patriots.
It’s on the ground where this season’s team makes up for it. Since 2009, only the 2012 and 2013 Patriots have rushed for more yards on average than this year’s 127.
Defensively, this is the first Patriots team to allow as many as 20 points per game (20.3) since doing so in three straights seasons, 2011-13. But two of the Patriots’ four Super Bowl teams this decade allowed more total yards per game (411 in 2011, 366 last year) than this year’s team (359), as did five of the previous nine New England teams.
Second-year Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn was asked about the Patriots’ supposed offensive dip.
“Stats don’t win games,” Lynn said. “They figure out ways to win games and that’s all that really matters. They won the division.
“Sometimes they go through (running) backs, sometimes they go through the receivers, tight ends — and the defence will step up and make timely stops, and they’re stingy in the red zone. So they just figure out a way to win games with what they have. And that’s what’s most important.”
Between playoffs and the regular season, Brady has won more games than any NFL quarterback, 234, including a record 27 in the post-season. It would be unwise to write him off. It was only 11 months ago that he threw for 478 yards against Philadelphia to break the Super Bowl single-game record he himself had shattered just the year before, with 466.
“There’s only one Tom Brady,” Lynn said.
And he’s not washed up yet. Nor are his teammates. Not according to the numbers.