How the race breaks down across Canada
Election 2019 will come down to three key battlegrounds: Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. Most of the rest of the country has already sworn allegiance to one party over the others.
Alberta and Saskatchewan are solidly behind the Conservatives and Manitoba is leaning heavily that way, enough to swing a few seats. The Conservatives could actually pick up four to five seats in Alberta — they also hope to unseat Ralph Goodale, the lone Liberal in Saskatchewan, and potentially take a few seats in Manitoba. The Liberals won’t be picking up any extra seats on the Prairies this campaign.
On the other hand,
Atlantic Canada is still solidly in the Liberal camp but not as much as 2015.
Last election the Liberals took more than 60% of the vote in some parts of the region and swept all 32 seats. With the Liberals leading the Conservatives 42% support to 25% they will likely win most, but not all of the seats this time.
That leaves the battlegrounds.
The Liberals won 40 of Quebec’s 78 seats in 2015 and were hoping to win most of the NDP’s 14 and Bloc’s 10 seats. That won’t be happening. With the Liberals leading provincewide, there is still room to pick up some seats, but Quebec is a very regional race.
The Liberals will own the Montreal area and likely pick off some NDP and perhaps Bloc MPs in that area, but their hope of reducing the NDP to a single seat is fading. In the Quebec City region, the Conservatives hold a solid lead with 38% of the vote to the Liberals 22%. That likely means a few more seats for Scheer.
Finally, outside of the cities, the Bloc is in control with 32% support, above the Liberals at 24% and Conservatives at 23%. Expect the Bloc to take several NDP seats in what are called “the regions.”
Ontario is the big prize with Toronto leaning heavily Liberal but the NDP threatening to take back some seats lost in 2015. In the mythical 905 region, the Liberals and Conservatives are splitting the western part comprised of Mississauga, Oakville and Burlington with the Conservatives leading north and east of Toronto.
Finally, British Columbia is almost a four-way race with the Liberals and Conservatives tied at the top, 30% to 28% respectively, with the NDP and Greens a bit behind at 20% and 19% support.
The Liberals will face pressure in Vancouver from both the Greens and NDP and to a degree the Conservatives in the suburbs. In the interior of the province and in the Okanagan, the Liberals will likely lose seats to the NDP and Conservatives.