BRACE YOURSELF
Tidal waves of huge news are set to rock the league
Tighten your hip-wader’s shoulder straps and slap on one of those droopy, yellow Sou’wester rain hats.
News-wise, the NFL’s version of the perfect off-season storm is about to slam us.
Over the next week, wave after wave of important league news — some gargantuan — will rise out of the sports ocean and obliterate everything on Twitter for hours at a time.
So get out the rubber boots and jacket, too. We’re gonna get jarred, we’re gonna get soaked.
So many big questions are about to be answered, practically all at once. Some right on top of the other. Like once-in-a-lifetime seas.
Particularly, will players approve the new collective-bargaining agreement by late Saturday night? Where’s Tom Brady going, if anywhere? Where will other bigname QBs land, and other players such as monster running back Derrick Henry? Which star players will get franchise- or transition-tagged by late Monday night? Who else gets cut by Wednesday as a cap casualty? Who else gets traded by then? What whopper free-agent deals WON’T leak out by the start of free agency next Wednesday afternoon? And who re-signs with his current team by then?
All that and more is showing up on the Doppler Radar.
1 The players’ CBA vote
Owners already have approved a proposed deal that resulted from 10 months of quiet negotiations between the league’s management council and NFL Players Association leaders.
Now it’s up to the 2,100 rank-and-file players who have been on an NFL team since last March and paid their union dues. All have until Saturday at 11:59 p.m. to electronically cast a vote on terms which, thanks to days of legalese sessions early last week, have now been flushed out to 439 pages.
Veterans who already have struck it rich at least once are the most vocal players against ratification, which requires a simple majority. One such player, Carolina safety Eric Reid, calls it a “bigger disaster than we could have imagined,” based on the assessment of a couple of ALL-CAPS-addicted celebrity attorneys-on-call.
But linebacker Sam Acho, a current NFLPA vice-president who ran for president, is entering his 10th NFL season as a fringe player (now with Tampa Bay).
He’s advocating for passage of the new CBA, citing the fact that 65% of league players in 2019 earned minimum salaries. Under the proposed new CBA, rookie minimum salaries would jump from $510,000 to $610,000 in 2020 before skyrocketing to nearly $1.1 million by 2030, the last year of the ostensible long-term deal.
Similarly, veterans with seven-plus years of experience would see their minimum salaries rise from $1.05 million in 2020 to $1.48 million in 2030.
Indeed by 2029 every active-roster NFL player (all 1,700-plus) would make at least a million a year.
That plus a slew of other owner concessions — including raising the players’ share of revenues by at least $5 billion through 2030, to a 48% stake — isn’t enough compensation for the deal’s critics to justify allowing owners to increase the regular season from 16 to 17 games per team, starting as early as 2021.
One year remains on the current 10-year CBA.
Owners want a new CBA in place now so as to maximize revenues from new TV contracts with networks through the 2020s; the promise of no labour disruptions in that time apparently is that meaningful.
Should the majority of players vote no, the 2020 league year would operate under terms of the final year of the current CBA, set to expire in March 2021.
But expect players to pass it and labour peace to descend until at least the start of the 2030s.
2 The quarterbacks
As I detailed in a feature this past weekend, as many as 19 quarterbacks whose names you surely know and whose worthiness you’ve surely already deduced, potentially could be switching teams in the days ahead. Either via free agency, trade, or being cut loose.
Starting with New England’s Brady.
The longer we inch closer to next Wednesday afternoon without Brady and the Patriots agreeing on a new contract, the likelier it seems his success-soaked 20-year run in Foxboro is coming to an end.
I still don’t believe it will come to that. If it does, one of four things will have happened: (a) Patriots football czar Bill Belichick just doesn’t want a slipping 43-year-old quarterback on his roster, (b) Brady demands a salary Belichick is unprepared to stomach, (c) Brady simply has decided he wants out, or (d) Brady merely wants to test the market, but then likes what he finds elsewhere.
Suitors reportedly could be led by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and even the Tennessee Titans. The San Francisco 49ers — Brady’s favourite team as a Bay Area boy — have not scotched speculation they might jump into the hunt, Jimmy Garoppolo notwithstanding.
Others QB-free-agents-inwaiting include Drew Brees of New Orleans, Dak Prescott of Dallas, Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers (who announced they’re letting him go), Ryan Tannehill of Tennessee, Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay, backup Teddy Bridgewater of New Orleans, backup Marcus Mariota of Tennessee, backup Case Keenum of Washington and backup Blake Bortles of the Los Angeles Rams.
QBs under contract through at least 2020 who reportedly are more than a little vulnerable and might find themselves free, or traded, include Cam Newton of Carolina, Garoppolo, Andy Dalton of Cincinnati, Derek Carr of Las Vegas, Jacoby Brissett of Indianapolis, Dwayne Haskins of Washington, Mitchell Trubisky of Chicago, Nick Foles of Jacksonville and Joe Flacco of Denver.
3 Who gets tagged? Who doesn’t?
Because of delays in the NFLPA’s CBA vote, the deadline for teams to slap either a franchise tag (non-exclusive or exclusive) or a transition tag on one free-agent-inwaiting per club has been extended now to Monday at 11:59 p.m.
Neither Brady nor Brees, by terms of their respective contracts, can be tagged this year. They’ll re-sign or play elsewhere. While all other free-agent-QBs-in-waiting listed above in item 2 may be tagged, the only likely candidates would be Prescott in Dallas, Tannehill in Tennessee and perhaps Winston in Tampa Bay.
As for other positions, know that teams tight against the salary cap cannot afford to tag anyone, what with 100% of tag salaries counting against the cap. That is, unless they engage deeply in options 5 or 6, below, to clear enough room.
As of midday Tuesday, teams tightest against the projected $200-million per team cap — all with under to $2 million to spare — were Baltimore, Atlanta, Chicago, Carolina, Philadelphia and the New York Jets, per OverTheCap.com.
4 Who gets cut as a cap casualty?
Clubs that aren’t under the cap must get there by Wednesday at 4 p.m. And those that are close might still want to create more room by jettisoning a veteran or two no longer deemed worth his remaining, typically back-loaded contract.
For instance, Cleveland waived linebacker Christian Kirksey on Tuesday. In 2017 he’d signed a four-year, $38-million extension with the Browns for 2018-21, but $16 million in salaries alone were back-loaded to this year and next, per OverTheCap. com.
Typically, name players every year are given the boot in this window, usually signing elsewhere eventually, for a lot less.
Some teams already have informed their cap casualties they’re going to be cap casualties, such as the Jets with cornerback Trumaine Johnson.
5 Who gets traded?
There could be any number of reasons a team might trade a good player at this time of year.
Maybe they’re moving on to a younger player at that position, such as in 2018 when Kansas City sent QB Alex Smith to Washington with Patrick Mahomes ready to spread his wings.
Or maybe for cap reasons, as veterans are waived only after a team concludes it can’t get anything for him on the trade market. If it can, the trade goes down.
Then there are teams that may have changed systems, especially on defence, and might want to trade away, or trade for, a good player. Such as last year when Kansas City acquired 4-3 edge rusher
Frank Clark from Seattle, and sent 3-4 edge rusher Dee Ford to San Francisco.
Or maybe a team just wants to get rid of a disgruntled player. And hello, Trent Williams of Washington, one of the top left tackles in the NFL who refused to report or play a down in 2019, so reportedly angry was he with the team’s medical staff.
Now under new management (Ron Rivera), the Redskins finally have backed down and are willing to grant Williams a trade. Expect one to go down by Wednesday.
Two trades-in-waiting of note already have gone down (the 2020 trade window does not officially open until next Wednesday). The Chargers are sending veteran OT Russell Okung to Carolina for veteran guard Trai Turner, and Jacksonville is moving cornerback A.J. Bouye to Denver for a 2020 fourthround draft pick.
It’s inconceivable the Panthers would just waive their QB since 2011 and face of the franchise, Newton. There has been so much buzz Newton might be a goner — no matter how soon he recovers from Lisfranc foot surgery — that many league observers believe it to be a valid possibility.
6 Who re-signs and foregoes free agency?
Beyond Brees in New Orleans — and it’d be the biggest off-season tidal wave ever if Brees does not remain a Saint — your guess is as good as anybody’s here.
Again, free-agents-in-waiting — at least those with at least four years of accrued NFL experience — have until next Wednesday at 4 p.m. to re-sign with their current team. Otherwise, if not tagged, they become free to sign anywhere.
(Players with three or fewer years of experience with expiring contracts become restricted free agents; there are different, more limiting rules for them.)
Outside of quarterbacks, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones might be the most sought-after of all unrestricted free agents. Few NFL interior defensive linemen are as reliably disruptive.
Amari Cooper of Dallas and A.J. Green of Cincinnati lead an otherwise thin freeagent wideout corps. Both might be re-signed or tagged, thus not becoming free. Because 2020 promises to be the best class of rookie receivers ever to hit the NFL, the value of Cooper, Green and any other WRs who make it to free agency might be substantially depressed. As many as 25 low-priced rookie wideouts could be picked in the first three rounds.
Jadeveon Clowney, the oft-injured but usually impactful edge rusher traded to Seattle early last season, and Tampa Bay’s Shaquil Barrett are the most prominent at QB-pocket disruption.
Same with cornerback Byron Jones of Dallas and safety Justin Simmons of Denver. Because this year’s rookie tight end class is so disappointing, top free-agent tight ends Hunter Henry of the Chargers and Austin Hooper of Atlanta probably will score huge deals.
If the Titans don’t re-sign or franchise-tag running back Derrick Henry, you’ve got to think — because he was the most dominant of any playoff performer over the first two weeks of January — that some team with a run-dependent attack will shell out big money for him.
Then again, as the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers proved better than any team in the modern era, you can have a fantastic rushing attack by signing the right unwanted free agent RBs off the street, too.
7 Which free-agent deals get struck in advance?
Plenty will. Remember, teams and agents can begin pre-negotiating for two days — in the ‘legal tampering’ period that begins Monday at noon. Last year, the first big free-agent deal leaked at 12:10 p.m. Right, just 10 minutes after the supposed period for negotiating only — and not consummating final deals, ha — kicked off. Ten minutes!
Nearly every big-name free-agent-to-be had agreed to terms with his new team by the time free agency officially kicked off.
So, yeah, next Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday ought to soak us all with wave after wave of huge NFL news. Bring a mop.