B.C. to study ‘excess deaths’ not directly blamed on virus
B.C. will investigate whether postponing surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to more deaths than normally expected.
The province reported on Monday that in March and April there were 170 “excess” deaths, those above what would be normally expected. It’s a 2.7 per cent increase above historical death levels.
Of those additional deaths, 111 have been attributed to COVID-19. Another 60 have not been attributed to the coronavirus.
The provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, said Tuesday they want to know if postponing surgeries was one of the causes of deaths not attributed directly to the virus. “That helps inform us for our response for the next wave, if we have another one ... Understanding those impacts is incredibly important,” said Henry.
A woman told Postmedia News last week she believed her husband died because surgery to prepare him for kidney dialysis was postponed due to the pandemic.
Henry has already suggested some of the 60 deaths may be related indirectly to the coronavirus or because people have avoided seeking medical attention out of fear of COVID-19. More will be known, she says, when detailed information on the deaths is available, some of that by the end of this month.
Dr. Michael Curry, an emergency doctor and a clinical associate professor at the University of B.C., said the excess deaths not directly related to the virus could be linked to stresses from the pandemic, including economic and psychological fallout.
“We do know that stress directly affects people’s health — it makes them more prone to medical conditions like heart attacks, also suicides,” said Curry.
As an emergency room physician in Delta, he noted they had seen a slowdown in visits that are only now picking up.
There is a concern that people with serious conditions may have avoided emergency rooms out of fear of the virus, said Curry.
Postponing elected surgeries could also be an issue, he said.
The excess death increase in B.C., at 2.7 per cent, is well below that recorded in some hard-hit jurisdictions, including the United States and the United Kingdom.
For example, according to information compiled by the New York Times, deaths from March 8 to April 11 in New Jersey were 72 per cent higher than normal, an increase of 5,200 deaths. In New York City, they were 225 per cent above normal, 11,900 excess deaths. In the U.K., the numbers of deaths above expected have also been high, 77 per cent above normal in one week in April in Wales.
It has lead to a question about whether COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted.
That is not necessarily a concern for B.C., as the increase is much smaller than in other jurisdictions, says Prabhat Jha, a physician and a professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
“A 2.7-per-cent increase, quite honestly, is something you might get with fluctuations month to month. So, we can’t over-interpret that,” said Jha.