‘Corona-calculus’ backs choice to go to school
Scientist mom explains why she is not worried about her son returning to class on Monday
When faced with a tough decision, Vancouver scientist Chana Davis turns to spreadsheets and data.
A recent difficult choice for Davis, who holds a PhD in genetics, was whether to put her nine-year-old son, Kieran, back into his Grade 3 class Monday when B.C. schools partially reopen after closing mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
But after doing a bit of “coronavirus calculus,” Davis sat down at her computer this week to summarize why Kieran will be going back, hoping others might benefit by reading her reasoning. She posted the article on her website, fueledbyscience.com, and was happy to explain her process in an interview, too.
She acknowledges that her math may not be the same as yours and says that’s OK. People have different levels of risk and concerns about money, kids and mental health. There are other good reasons to say, “Heck no,” she wrote. But for her family, it makes sense.
“I think it’s really important that there’s not a feeling that those who send (their children) back are being reckless, and playing with their child’s life,” she told Postmedia News. “It’s actually a reasonable, data-driven decision to make.”
Davis considered the benefits of having Kieran return to school. He misses his friends and teachers. Online schooling has been a stressful and lacklustre experience, despite him having a wonderful, dedicated teacher, Davis wrote.
The schooling has also taken a toll on the mother and son’s relationship, and Davis has felt that she has been unable to meet her own needs and those of her son, her fouryear-old twins and her husband. So, she evaluated the costs and risks of putting Kieran into class a few days a week, focusing on three key questions.
First, she asked how likely it would be that Kieran would get infected at school. She looked at the odds of someone else carrying the virus at his school and the chances of them having an infection-spreading interaction.
At the time of writing her article, cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region were low with about 170 active, for a prevalence of about one in 8,000 in the region. Recent modelling has suggested it would be OK to “turn off” physical distancing recommendations when prevalence hits as low as one case per 1,000 to 2,000 people, according to her research.
Meanwhile, schools in B.C. are implementing measures to keep students and staff safe, such as increasing space between desks, regularly cleaning high-contact surfaces and more frequent hand washing.
Second, Davis considered what health risks Kieran faces if he is infected. Looking at B.C. Centre for Disease Control data, she found that less than one per cent of COVID19 cases are in children.
Most cases were mild, however, children with pre-existing conditions are at much higher risk of serious illness.
Finally, Davis looked at the small possibility that her son could be a “silent carrier,” passing the virus onto someone else. Davis wrote that her solution is “to employ a combination of risk mitigation and transparency.”
That means that as her family increases contacts with other people, they’ll keep socializing outdoors and having only “minimal, mindful close contact” when outside of their home. They’ll be open with people about who they have contacted, letting them know about Kieran’s return to school.
“The numbers that I came up with, well, these are just public health numbers,” Davis said. “But I think a lot of people struggle to put those numbers in context, and so I think that’s where I hope to really add value for people because they don’t know if this is a lot or a little.”