Avoiding transit ‘huge issue’ for industry, expert says
No matter how the COVID19 crisis plays out, some trends, such as moving around less and an emphasis on health and safety, are here to stay, according to an expert in the future of mobility.
Scott Corwin, a managing director with Deloitte who is based in New York, told the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade during a webinar on Monday that these changes and others are something the mobility sector, including public transportation, will have to contend with during and in the years following the pandemic.
“We’re facing sort of a dual challenge here in mobility around how the epidemic will impact individual attitudes and behavioural changes,” said Corwin.
Digitization, including things such as working remotely, virtual medical appointments and online learning, has already become part of the “new normal” during COVID-19, and the need for mobility has been reduced.
“We believe that a big chunk of that will endure, that we will not go back to the normal that we all knew pre-COVID,” Corwin said. “The issue or question is what does that pendulum look like.”
Transit authorities are already struggling with a huge drop in ridership — TransLink saw its numbers go down more than 80 per cent — and although people are slowly returning, it will be a long time before there is a marked improvement.
The transit authority’s CEO has said that whether ridership will recover is a huge question for the industry, and the answer will be different in each jurisdiction.
“There is no precedent for this, there is no playbook for this,” Kevin Desmond said recently.
The definition of safety has been expanded to include sanitization and hygiene, along with crowding on shared mobility like transit systems, said Corwin, How safe a person feels will affect how much they move around and by which means. He added that unless there is testing, tracing and, ultimately, a vaccine for COVID-19, it will be difficult to get back to a semblance of normalcy.
“Those are sine qua nons (essential conditions) of what’s needed, and that’s part of safety too,” Corwin said. “It’s not just clean environments. It’s in fact knowing that we’re getting our arms around this pandemic and that people can live and work safely.”
A survey Mustel Group conducted for the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade showed that 36 per cent of respondents in Metro Vancouver said they plan to increase their car use or ownership because of the pandemic.
Corwin said the response is “a flight to safety” and not surprising, but, a return to vehicles for getting into and around cities will only increase congestion and carbon emissions, and decrease quality of life.
“It’s not really a sustainable answer. It’s an understandable reaction, but we really do need to think about if cities are going to be vibrant again, how to we get people to want to use safe, alternative forms. How do we encourage them to do that?” Corwin said.
“Single-occupancy cars have a role, but they can’t be our primary way to get around.”
Respondents also said they expect to decrease their use of transit (34 per cent), car sharing (13 per cent) and ride-hailing (12 per cent).
Corwin said he does think people will turn more to active forms of mobility, such as cycling and walking.
“The question is does it scale at any level that actually meets the needs of getting into cities and moving around cities.”