Next phase of easing could come soon
Data suggests COVID-19 cases will continue to decline in B.C.
B.C.’s success at dramatically slowing the spread of the coronavirus means the province might be able to move into the next phase of easing in a few weeks.
An analysis of cases and computer modelling data released Thursday suggests the province will experience continued declines in transmission achieved through widespread social distancing.
The positive results have continued even though physical-distancing restrictions were eased in the third week of May, allowing, for example, restaurants to reintroduce seated dining. Personal-services businesses, such as hair salons and physiotherapist offices, were also allowed to reopen.
The next restart phase would include hotels and resorts, the film industry and some entertainment, such as movies.
“I will never put a date on it because much of it depends on what we do. But we are very hopeful that we’ll get to our next phase in the middle of June, into July,” said Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer.
Globally, the virus continues to spread, she said, noting the recent dramatic increases in Brazil and Russia.
“When there is this virus anywhere, we are all at risk, so we can’t (ease) off everything,” Henry said.
B.C. has its own challenges, such as clusters of cases in workplaces, including at poultry plants in the Fraser Valley, she said.
But Henry said she does not believe that B.C. will experience explosive growth of the virus if people continue to practise physical distancing.
And where there are closer interactions, measures will be needed, such as barriers between people, she said.
Those include Plexiglas partitions between store clerks and shoppers and limiting the number of people in stores.
Information released by the province shows 144 cases were detected from May 18 to 31 as restrictive measures were eased. At about 10 a day, it’s well down from the 50 to 80 cases a day reported in March.
Of those 144 cases, most were in the Fraser Health region with 57 in Fraser South, 46 in Fraser East and 10 in Fraser North. Another 13 were in Coastal Health, all in the Vancouver area and none in Richmond.
The total cases from January to the end of May in these health delivery zones, the most geographically detailed information made public so far, showed 540 cases in Vancouver, 259 in North ShoreCoast Garibaldi and 88 in Richmond. In Fraser Health, Fraser South had 523 cases, Fraser North had 411, and Fraser East had 367.
Computer modelling shows that if distancing restrictions are relaxed so that interactions among people rise to 70 per cent of normal or higher, there could be a rapid rebound in transmissions.
However, in modelling estimates interactions are about 30 to 40 per cent of normal now and transmission is not expected to increase if interactions rise to 60 per cent.
That provides some leeway, Henry said.
Modelling also shows that a partial reopening of schools will have minimal effect on transmission if vulnerable adults maintain physical distancing.
Information on the genetic makeup of the virus shows that most cases in B.C. are linked to Europe or Eastern
Canada. There was also transmission from Washington state, but not much from China or Iran except some early cases. Over time, as the virus moves around globally, small genetic changes allow scientists to pinpoint where transmission occurred.
B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said the analysis showed the importance of continued border restrictions.
“The continuing importance of measures involving quarantine and self-isolation when people return to British Columbia are key, and measures at the border continue to be key,” Dix said.
A University of B.C. epidemiologist, Daniel Coombs, said he particularly found interesting that contact tracing before March 15, when restriction measures were brought in, showed people had about 10.7 contacts per case, while after March 15 they dropped to 3.6.
That lends credence to the estimates of reduced interactions to 30 per cent to 40 per cent of normal in the modelling, noted Coombs.