Good luck formulating specifics on availability

Around the world, politicians, drugmakers and regulators offer contradictory outlooks on when a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready. Much depends on what ready means and for what group of people.

Some key questions around the timeline are:

WILL IT WORK?

More than a half-dozen drugmakers worldwide are conducting advanced clinical trials, with tens of thousands of participants. Several expect to know if their vaccine works safely by year’s end.

The most optimistic timeline comes from AstraZeneca, which is running a study in Britain that it said could be complete as early as August.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the U.S., told Reuters last week that a trial by Moderna could produce decisive results by November or December. Others will come later, some much later.

Some experts are skeptical that the trials, which must study potential side-effects, can be completed that quickly. Peter Hotez, of Baylor College in Texas, said collecting enough data to prove a vaccine is safe could take until mid-2021.

WHEN WILL IT BE READY?

Several drugmakers are building manufacturing capacity so they can begin production as soon as vaccines are approved by regulators. Some efforts are backed by a U.S. government program called Operation Warp Speed.

Fauci told Reuters he expects “tens of millions” of doses to be available in early 2021.

Several companies, including Moderna, AstraZeneca and

Pfizer, said they each expect to make more than 1 billion doses next year.

WHEN CAN I GET IT?

First supplies late this year or early next would likely go to those in rich nations who are deemed by governments to work in essential industries or who are at the greatest risk. That is likely to include people with other issues, such as diabetes, health-care workers, and members of the military.

Canada, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. have locked in deals putting their citizens first in line for inoculations as they become broadly available during 2021.

Most vaccines are being tested as two shots.

WHAT ABOUT OTHERS?

The wait time for COVID-19 vaccines will likely be longer in developing countries, which don’t have early supply deals. Some may struggle to pay for vaccines that could cost up to $40 per person, Hotez said.

“I am worried that Operation Warp Speed vaccines will not reach developing countries any time soon,” Hotez said.