Lower suicide rate for B.C. feared as `lagging indicator'
Experts say rise may come later despite study finding decline of 26 per cent
An international study that shows a 26 per cent decline in B.C.'s suicide rate during the first eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic must be viewed carefully, say experts who fear the pandemic's worst impacts on mental health have yet to be seen.
It is not uncommon for suicide rates to decrease in the face of challenging situations, only to be followed by an uptick later, said Emily Jenkins, an assistant professor in the University of B.C.'s School of Nursing.
“We know that suicide is a lagging indicator,” said Jenkins, who is the lead researcher on an unrelated national mental health monitoring survey. “I think we need to be very vigilant.”
The study's authors also cautioned about misinterpreting their findings, which were recently published in The Lancet Psychiatry. The international study collected data from 21 countries, including three Canadian provinces, and compared the number of suicides in the first several months of the pandemic to past suicide rates. The data, which was collected primarily from high- and upper-middle-income countries as information was not available for other countries, showed suicide trends either stayed the same, or decreased.
The B.C. data, obtained from the B.C. Coroners Service, showed 189 suicides from April 1 to July 31 last year, compared to an expected rate of 250, a 24 per cent decrease. The percentage held steady when data from March 1 to Oct. 31 was added, when there were 239 suicides compared to an expected rate of 325, which was a 26 per cent decrease. Both Alberta and Manitoba also saw decreases of 20 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively.
“Our results are an important reminder that suicide is not inevitable, even in difficult times,” said Mark Sinyor, the study's co-investigator and a suicide prevention expert in the Hurvitz Brain Sciences Program at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto.
Several factors could explain the decrease, including the “coming-together phenomenon,” often seen during global catastrophes, he said. In addition, countries such as Canada have a “fairly robust system of mental health care,” which was able to move online. The impact of government financial support could also be a contributor.
“The key point to take away is that an increase in suicides when times are challenging is not destiny,” said Sinyor, who is an associate professor at the University of Toronto. “If we continue to provide good access to health care and a financial safety net, we can prevent suicides.”
The study, conducted by the International COVID-19 Suicide Prevention Research Collaboration, will continue to monitor worldwide suicide rates as more data becomes available. Meanwhile, local studies have shown a concerning trend toward worsening mental health.
The national monitoring study led by Jenkins found a sharp increase in “suicidality” in the fall, with one in 10 Canadians experiencing thoughts or feelings of suicide, up from six per cent in the spring and 21/2 per cent throughout 2016.
At the Fraser Health Crisis Line, the number of calls has jumped from about 5,000 to 6,000 per month before COVID-19 to 7,000 to 8,000 in recent months. The crisis line's 170 volunteers responded to 54,000 calls between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, an all-time high, said program manager Thaddée Bergler.
“I think in the future we'll see an increased need for immediate supports like the crisis line, as well as for longterm mental health supports,” he said. “Right now, we're all going through this trauma. You don't always process it while you're going through it — it's after.”
If you need mental health help, call 310-6789 (no area code) for emotional support, information and resources specific to mental health, or 1-800-SUICIDE (1-800-7842433) if you are experiencing feelings of distress or despair, including thoughts of suicide.